Brazil Elections 2006

Apr 18, 2006

Background on the Elections
Candidate Biographies
Analysis
Key Election Headlines
National Polls
Regional Polls




Background on the Elections

Elections in Brazil



Candidate Biographies

President Lula was reelected on October 29, with 60.83 percent of the valid vote:




Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva


Analysis

In 2nd Term, Brazil's Leader Has Agenda Topped by Ethics
New York Times
10/31/2006
While Lula's vote totals in the October 29 runoff election gave him an important popular mandate, his government will continue to face challenges in building a legislative coalition to get his policies approved in Congress. In order to do so, the PT faces the possibility of having to make questionable deals with other parties--not a tempting prospect, given the spectrum of corruption allegations that point to PT delegates. Facing a slew of necessary economic and judicial reforms, some speculate that Lula will look outside his own party for greater administrative experience and he may come to depend on former opponents to help him govern during his second term.

Lula's comfortable win
The Economist
10/30/2006
Lula's victory in the runoff election has led observers to point out his emphasis on the privatization issue as a catalyst for success. While Lula criticized the stance of the PSDB toward business and alleged that Geraldo Alckmin would extend privatization, the latter responded by coming out in favor of state-owned companies, rather than defending his party's successful privatization efforts since the presidency of Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Following the election, discussion of the economy will turn to boosting Brazil's slow growth rate--which is widely considered the result of a cumbersome state structure.

'It would be more difficult for Alckmin to govern'
BBC Brasil
10/09/2006
Em português
During a debate at Chatham House in London, United Kingdom on Monday, October 9, several panelists analyzed the candidates' outlook for governability in Brazil heading toward runoff elections on October 29. Timothy Powers of Oxford University compared a possible Alckmin government to that of FHC, which faced a PMDB divided among allies and the opposition. Discussing the effects of the Bolsa Família program, both Power and Anthony Pereira, of the University of East Anglia, denied Lula's "populist" identity, though added that he has become less reluctant to use populist measures. Ed Amann, from the University of Manchester, also provided an economic analysis that asked whether Brazil would be able to attract investment without putting support for social programs in jeopardy.

Brazil Focus Special Report: 2006 Elections
Brazil Focus
10/02/2006
David Fleischer, of the University of Brasilia and editor of Brazil Focus, presents a recent special report with an analysis the 2006 Brazilian elections. He examines the progression of changes in polling numbers for the presidential vote leading up to the election, as well as the changes that have occurred in the composition of the Brazilian Congress following the vote on October 1.

Human Development and Voting Patterns in 2002 and 2006
Oxford University
10/02/2006
Timothy J. Power, from the Centre of Brazilian Studies of Oxford University, United Kingdom, presents a statistical analysis of the changes in Lula's first-round electoral support from 2002 to 2006, using Sunday's election data. In this presentation he examines the inverse relationship between the relative change in Lula's electoral support in each state and the relative change in levels of development by state during the same period (according to the Human Development Index, HDI; please see the United Nations Development Program for more information). Power also looks at a similar inverse relationship between voting for Lula and levels of democracy by state. The final component of the presentation expands to include analysis of the votes garnered by the second- and third-place finishers in Sunday's first round, Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) and Heloísa Helena (PSOL), respectively.

Pre-First Round Analysis



Election Headlines

Brazil Leader Is Hearing Calls for a Version of the New Deal
New York Times
11/4/2006
As he enters his second term in office, President Lula faces the temptation to deviate from the orthodox economic approach to which his administration had adhered so strictly during the past four years. Many of the president's supporteres are calling for policies that emphasize development over economic stability. Yet, while inflation remains at record lows in Brazil, the specter of past price surges continues to loom large. Recently, markets responded unfavorably to suggestions that Brazil abandon its concern with inflation to focus on boosting growth and income redistribution.

Brazil's President Roars Back to Win Vote
New York Times
10/30/2006
With a t-shirt that stated, "The Victory is Brazil's", President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won reelection on Sunday night with slightly more than 60 percent of the popular vote. The results of the runoff election between the PT incumbent and PSDB candidate Geraldo Alckmin surprised some observers, given the numerous corruption scandals in government during the past two years. Many point to Lula's victory as a sign that Brazilians favor the economic stability experienced during his first term, though others point to his charisma (and Alckmin's poorly run campaign) as the reason for the president's reelection.

Lula speaks of dialogue with the oppposition and political reform as priorities
O Globo
10/29/2006
Em Português
In his first pronouncement since being declared victor of the run-off round, President Lula makes clear that his second mandate will be marked by dialogue. With 100 percent of the votes counted, Lula received over 58,294 million votes or 60.83 percent of the vote.

Lula Heading for Victory
Latin Times
10/27/2006
According to the latest opinion polls, Lula is set to defeat Alckmin in this Sunday's run-off election by as much as 20 percentage points. Alckmin has one last chance for a come-back with tonight's final television debate. Lula has successfully linked Alckmin to the unpopular privatizations undertaken by the previous PSDB federal administration, while Alckmin stopped attacking Lula for the corruption in his government. The only surprise, according to analysts, will be the extent of Lula's lead.

In Surprise, Brazil's da Silva Is Back on Top
New York Times
10/22/2006
Despite garnering enough votes in the first round of voting to force a runoff with Lula da Silva on October 29, Geraldo Alckmin remains the heavy underdog in the race for the Brazilian presidency. In the face of swirling corruption allegations tied to the emergence of "dossier-gate", and indeed, the deepening crisis for the PT as investigations continue, Lula has managed to portray his opponent's campaign as too focused on corruption and not offering enough "positive proposals for Brazil." Alckmin, meanwhile, has tried to stress his middle-class roots to appeal to voters from the working classes, while his aggressive approach to televised debates reflect an attempt to dispel his image as the less interesting personality in the race.

Majority of "New" Faces in Chamber of Deputies Already Well-Known
BBC Brasil
10/16/2006
Em Português
Out of 513 members that will take their seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies next year, 267 were recently re-elected and 50 have served in the Chamber at some point in the past. Out of the nearly 200 that are new to the body, more than half have extensive experience holding public office, ranging from state-level senators and deputies to former state governors and federal senators. Nevertheless, nearly a quarter of the elected deputies have never held elected office, though some have been appointed to positions in the past. Among the most notorious members of the new Chamber are several deputies that have been accused in past corruption scandals, including the mensalão and the sanguessugas.

Lula's Foreign Policy Is What The People Want
Reuters
10/13/2006
Em Português
The Chancellor of Brazil, Celso Amorim, criticized Brazil's ex-president, Cardoso, in part of a campaign on behalf of the re-election of Lula. Among other comments, Amorim said that while Cardoso was never able to attend a G8 summit, Lula has been invited to and attended three. It is unusual for a chancellor to publically endorse a political candidate, and so Amorim's remarks have created some international controversy.

Tense first debate between Lula and Alckmin
BBC Brasil
10/08/2006
Em Português
Brazil's presidential candidates took part in the election's first televised debate of the second round this Sunday in a five-round session. The first focused on government spending, though the subject quickly turned to the "dossiê scandal" and Alckmin demanded that Lula reveal the source of the money. Lula responded by questioning Alckmin's relationship with politicians implicated in earlier corruption scandals. During the second round, Alckmin returned to the subject of corruption, while Lula spoke on the success of his cash transfer programs. The debate's third stage featured questions about public security, foreign policy and infrastructure, with particular attention paid to Bolivia's nationalization of gas reserves. The fourth set of questions came from the journalists of TV Bandeirantes, who inquired about Lula's knowledge of corruption and the state of morals in Brazil, as well as Alckmin's plan to cut spending. When the candidates directed questions toward one another in the fifth round, the pair discussed privatizations and education. The debate finished with closing statements from each candidate.

Brazil's Lula on defensive over fraud in TV debate
Reuters
10/08/2006
While normally soft-spoken, Geraldo Alckmin asked several tough questions of President Lula during Sunday's televised debate. The PSDB candidate demanded to know the source of the "dirty money" whose discovery revealed a PT corruption scheme, but Lula responded by touting his administration's successful cash transfers program and attacking Alckmin's record on crime while Governor of São Paulo state. Alckmin also denied allegations that he would privatize several state-owned companies, including Petrobras, and criticized Lula for making comments to that effect. Sunday Lula's first time participating as an incumbent in a televised debate, after missing several of them prior to the election's first round.

Brazil candidates vie for regional backing
BBC News
10/03/2006
As Lula da Silva and Geraldo Alckmin prepare for Brazil's presidential runoff election on October 29, their campaigns also depend on the evolution of several other races throughout the country. Ten out of 27 states in Brazil will hold state-level runoff elections of their own, and both presidential candidates have already started speaking with other politicians facing a second round of elections. As Lula and Alckmin begin reaching out to third-party supporters, each will likely focus their efforts in areas of the country where they failed to capture votes on October 1. Third-place presidential candidate Heloísa Helena has stated she will not support either of her opponents in the second round.

In Brazil Balloting, Leader Finds His Base May Turn to Sand
New York Times
10/03/2006
"This is going to be an interesting second round," said President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a press conference in Brasília. "I have to convince the people." Though his last outing in a runoff in 2002 proved quite successful, when he won by a large margin, he faces a potentially much longer uphill climb this year. Investigations continue into allegations of corruption, with each new discovery more damaging for his image and that of his party. Nonetheless, in order to "convince the people" that he is worthy of a second term, the President will be compelled to participate for the first time this year in presidential debates, after he most recently declined to take part during the week leading up to the election.

Lula bid derailed by 'dossier affair'
BBC News
10/02/2006
Though he held a significant lead in the polls for several months, incumbent Lula da Silva saw his numbers drop so much recently that he did not win re-election in the first round as previously expected. Much of the support he lost came as a result of corruption allegations and the "dossier affair" that has come to the fore during the last few weeks, even after the party had begun to distance itself from last year's uproar over the scheme to buy votes in Congress. As Lula and challenger Geraldo Alckmin enter the final, decisive phase before the runoff on October 29, investigation in the case continues with the possibility of implicating more government officials.

In Brazil, da Silva Forced Into Runoff
Wall Street Journal
10/02/2006
This article requires online access to the Wall Street Journal.
While Lula's failure to win first-round re-election on October 1 was a major disappointment for the President, investors find themselves in a win-win situation as the runoff election approaches on October 29. On one hand, Brazil's strong financial performance during the past four years continues to make Lula a formidable candidate heading into the second round of voting. On the other, many believe that challenger Geraldo Alckmin can benefit from his growing momentum and that he inspires greater confidence with his vision for necessary economic reforms. Major corruption scandals that contributed to Lula's failure to reach the 50 percent of votes needed to avoid a runoff will continue to play an important role during the next several weeks as well. Regardless of who wins, the victor will face notable challenges in the area of economic reform. Structural factors are likely to impede any rapid advancement in this area, and the task of forming a viable governing coalition still looms on the horizon.

Lula gets close to victory, but does not win the first round
O Globo
10/02/2006
Em Português
Brazil's Presidential Election will be decided in a second round runoff election on October 29, between incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and PSDB candidate Geraldo Alckmin. With all of the votes counted, Lula had 48.61 percent of the valid votes, compared to Alckmin's 41.64 percent. Heloisa Helena (PSOL) received 6.85 percent, and Cristovam Buarque (PDT) receive 2.64. Lula took 16 states compared to Alckmin's 11. While Lula's advantage should not be ignored, analysts argue that the ball is in Alckmin's court.

September Headlines

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February Headlines



National Polls

Final Results of 2006 Brazilian Elections
Justiça Electoral
10/30/2006
Em português
Please see here for the results of Brazil's runoff elections which took place on October 29, 2006. Statistics on this page also include vote totals for the first-round elections, Governors, Senate and Chamber of Deputies.

This map displays the states won by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) in the second round (runoff) of elections on October 29. Lula emerged victorious with 60.83 percent of the popular vote and will serve a second four-year term as president.


Lula reaches 61 percent of valid votes, 22 points ahead of Alckmin
Datafolha
10/24/2006
Em Português

Lula's lead over Geraldo Alckmin grows to 21 percent; nearly seven of ten voters believe Lula will win
IBOPE
10/21/2006
Em Português

Lula reaches 57 percent, lead over Alckmin grows to 19 percentage points
Datafolha
10/17/2006
Em Português

Lula retains lead with 51 percent, 11 points ahead of Alckmin
Datafolha
10/10/2006
Em Português

Results of Federal Elections in Brazil
Election Resources on the Internet
10/02/2006
Please see here for the results of Brazil's first round of federal elections which took place on October 1, 2006. Results include vote totals for the Presidency, Senate and Chamber of Deputies.

This map displays the states won by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) in the first round of election results. In total, Lula won 16 states to Alckmin's 11, but his overall vote total fell short of the 50 percent required to avoid a runoff election on October 29.



National Polls Archives



Regional Polls


October Results of Runoff Election Polls
IBOPE
10/30/2006
Em Português
Changes in IBOPE poll results during October, prior to second round of executive elections (Presidency and remaining Governorships) on October 29.

Regional Polls Archives



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