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Latin American Program in the News: Will Continued Hostilities Derail Colombia's Peace Talks?

Cindy Arnson

Director Cynthia Arnson provided commentary on the Colombian peace talks.

Cynthia J. Arnson, director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington: "Peace processes worldwide are frequently characterized by a perverse logic: armed actors intensify violence in order to demonstrate how much pain they arecapable of inflicting in the absence of an accord. But whether increased violence adds to the incentives to negotiate, or destroys confidence in the process alto-gether, depends entirely on context. In Colombia, there is deep distrust regarding the FARC's real interest in peace, given its routine violations of interna-tional humanitarian law, involvement in the drug trade, and behavior during the four-year peace process under the Andrés Pastrana administration. Against this backdrop, the FARC's declaration of a unilateral two-month cease-fire last November was a welcome gesture, albeit one that for political reasons the government could not reciprocate. Now that the cease-fire is over and FARC attacks are escalating, there is increased pressure to show that the negotiations are bearing fruit or public support will evaporate. The relentless hostility of former President Álvaro Uribe and his supporters poses a grave danger in this regard. Public statements by the negotiating parties indicate that the possibility for an agreement on land issues is substantial, but the government's self-imposed deadline of next November appears unrealistic given the number of remaining issues on the agenda. An accord with the FARC would have a significant impact on the rural communities most affected by the conflict, help address longstanding structural inequalities, and bolster economic development. The effect on overall levels of violence and organized crime is much less certain."

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About the Author

Cindy Arnson

Cynthia J. Arnson

Distinguished Fellow, Latin America Program
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Latin America Program

The Wilson Center’s prestigious Latin America Program provides non-partisan expertise to a broad community of decision makers in the United States and Latin America on critical policy issues facing the Hemisphere. The Program provides insightful and actionable research for policymakers, private sector leaders, journalists, and public intellectuals in the United States and Latin America. To bridge the gap between scholarship and policy action, it fosters new inquiry, sponsors high-level public and private meetings among multiple stakeholders, and explores policy options to improve outcomes for citizens throughout the Americas. Drawing on the Wilson Center’s strength as the nation’s key non-partisan policy forum, the Program serves as a trusted source of analysis and a vital point of contact between the worlds of scholarship and action.  Read more

Latin America Program

The Wilson Center’s prestigious Latin America Program provides non-partisan expertise to a broad community of decision makers in the United States and Latin America on critical policy issues facing the Hemisphere. The Program provides insightful and actionable research for policymakers, private sector leaders, journalists, and public intellectuals in the United States and Latin America. To bridge the gap between scholarship and policy action, it fosters new inquiry, sponsors high-level public and private meetings among multiple stakeholders, and explores policy options to improve outcomes for citizens throughout the Americas. Drawing on the Wilson Center’s strength as the nation’s key non-partisan policy forum, the Program serves as a trusted source of analysis and a vital point of contact between the worlds of scholarship and action.  Read more