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Mexico Institute in the News: Leftist makes gains in polls in second bid for Mexico’s presidency

Andrew Selee

Left-leaning candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is climbing back into the limelight in Mexico, where a late bump in the polls has boosted his stature before the nation’s July 1 presidential election. The Mexico Institute's Andrew Selee comments.

Mr. Calderon is barred by the Mexican Constitution from seeking a second term. Should a standoff be looming this time around, it would most likely result be between Mr. Lopez Obrador and centrist front-runner Enrique Pena Nieto.

Analysts say a stalemate is unlikely because Mr. Pena Nieto, 45, still enjoys a large lead over Mr. Lopez Obrador, 59, and Mexican leftists are unlikely to enter the streets for a candidate who’s efforts fell short in 2006.

“It’s unlikely that Lopez Obrador is going to find the same support that he did the last time, and there are two reasons why,” said Andrew Selee, director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington.

“One is that the electoral institute overseeing the voting is more credible this time around,” Mr. Selee said. “The other is that if he loses, many people on the left will see him as the past and not the future of their movement.”

The most recent polls posted by Mexican newspapers have Mr. Pena Nieto carrying 42 percent of the vote - a double-digit lead over Mr. Lopez Obrador, who, at 28 percent, is tied with Josefina Vazquez Mota, the first major female presidential candidate in Mexico.

Mr. Selee acknowledged Mr. Lopez Obrador “could conceivably have hidden supporters out there that we don’t know about,” a possibility some on the left are pinning their hopes on.

Read More:  http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jun/12/leftist-makes-gains-in-polls-in-second-bid-for-mex/

About the Author

Andrew Selee

Andrew Selee

Former Executive Vice President and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute;
President, Migration Policy Institute
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Mexico Institute

The Mexico Institute seeks to improve understanding, communication, and cooperation between Mexico and the United States by promoting original research, encouraging public discussion, and proposing policy options for enhancing the bilateral relationship. A binational Advisory Board, chaired by Luis Téllez and Earl Anthony Wayne, oversees the work of the Mexico Institute.   Read more

Mexico Institute

The Mexico Institute seeks to improve understanding, communication, and cooperation between Mexico and the United States by promoting original research, encouraging public discussion, and proposing policy options for enhancing the bilateral relationship. A binational Advisory Board, chaired by Luis Téllez and Earl Anthony Wayne, oversees the work of the Mexico Institute.   Read more