Science and Technology Innovation Program

Predicting the Future of Science and Technology: Wanna Bet?

Jun 01, 2010

Over the next few months, the Science and Technology Innovation Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars will be running an experiment in the use of an online prediction market to explore the future of science and technology. You may have heard of prediction markets being used in other areas, for instance, the Iowa Electronic Market has been very successful in predicting the outcome of U.S. Presidential elections, and businesses have used prediction markets to forecast inventory levels and the sales of new products. But there have been few applications of prediction markets to explore the future of science and technology.

We are inviting you to be part of this experiment and begin by betting on the weekend box office take of a new film called Splice, which opens in the U.S. on June 4th. In this film, two young scientists push the ethical and legal boundaries of genetic engineering by introducing human DNA into animal genes. Your goal is to make money in the market (we will be using virtual money), have fun, and help predict the future.

This market will open on June 1st, close at 5 pm EDT on June 4th, and pay out on June 7th. At that time, you can enter a more extensive market covering a wide range of science and technology-related questions covering physics, biology, astronomy, medicine, and public policy. Additionally, you will have the opportunity to submit your own questions to be traded on in the marketplace.

To sign up for 5,000 virtual dollars and bet on the box office earnings of Splice during its opening weekend, go to http://stip.inklingmarkets.com/. You can watch a trailer for the film here.

To learn more about prediction markets, click here.

To learn more about the Science and Technology Innovation Program visit http://www.wilsoncenter.org/stip.

Experts & Staff

  • David Rejeski // Director, Science and Technology Innovation Program; Interim Director, Commons Lab
  • Todd Kuiken, Ph.D. // Senior Program Associate, Science and Technology Innovation Program
  • Aaron Lovell // Writer/Editor/Program Manager, Science and Technology Innovation Program
  • Eleonore Pauwels // Program Associate/Researcher, Science and Technology Innovation Program
  • Anne Bowser // Researcher, Data Science and Visualization, Science and Technology Innovation Program
  • Elizabeth Tyson // New Projects/Technology Scout, Science and Technology Innovation Program
  • Sharon Weinberger // Global Fellow
  • Piers Millett // Global Fellow
  • Mark Schaefer // Global Fellow