Central Asian Energy and U.S. Security and Foreign Policy Interests

At a recent Kennan Institute talk, Ariel Cohen, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, discussed the changing situation in Central Asia, and the implications that these changes have for United States security and foreign policy in the region.

Cohen argued that energy has become the primary factor driving developments in the region, leading both to the increasing assertiveness of Russian foreign policy, and to increased focus on the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus.

The United States can play a role in the region, according to Cohen, but not the dominant role. The region will continue to be more influenced by Russia, China, and the Muslim world, due to its geography and long-standing cultural ties. Cohen summarized the interests of the United States in Central Asia in three words: energy, security, and democracy.

In the energy sphere, Cohen discussed what he saw as a trend away from a tolerant marketplace environment made up of both public and private companies. The challenge for the United States will be to manage the diversification of energy transit. With China and India both increasing their demand for hydrocarbons, Western Europe will face increasing questions about how it will meet its energy needs, especially if Russia slows the expansion of its resource extraction industries.

In terms of security, Cohen said the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001 changed the dynamic of the region dramatically. During and after the invasion of Afghanistan, the United States was able to establish military bases in the region. Recently, some of these bases have been closed down due to the changing strategic environment.

Security and democracy are linked in this region, as the example of Uzbekistan after the Andijan massacre shows. Cohen called the enthusiasm with which the "colored revolutions" were greeted by observers in the West "irrational exuberance," adding that he too had been one of those who had greeted these revolutions as signs of a change in the region. He said the rhetoric of democratization has failed, adding that it had made elites in many of the countries very uncomfortable. The examples of Kyrgyz democracy, the return of Viktor Yanukovych to the prime minister's post in Ukraine, and the increasingly tense state of Russian-Georgian relations illustrate the difficulties facing the United States.