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Post-Orange Ukraine: What's Next after the Parliamentary Elections

Olexiy Haran, Regional Vice President for Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova, The Euraisa Foundation, and former Regional Exchange Scholar, Kennan Institute

Date & Time

Wednesday
Apr. 12, 2006
3:00pm – 4:00pm ET

Overview

At a recent Kennan Institute talk, Olexiy Haran, Regional Vice President for Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova, The Eurasia Foundation, and former Regional Exchange Scholar, Kennan Institute, discussed his appraisal of the results of the 2006 parliamentary elections in Ukraine. The Party of Regions, led by defeated presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych, took first place in the election with 32.1 percent of the vote. Second place, with 22.3 of the vote, went to the Yulia Tymoshenko bloc. Tymoshenko was one of the leaders of the Orange movement and held the post of Prime Minister, but was dismissed from that position by President Viktor Yushchenko, whose Our Ukraine block took only 13.9 percent of the vote.

Haran described some of the background conditions that led to this result. First, the Orange coalition that proved victorious in the 2004 presidential election, but split in September 2005, was an anti-government opposition coalition; they did not have a unifying ideology beyond defeating the previous Kuchma administration's anointed successor, Yanukovych, and providing democratic rules for Ukrainian politics. Haran noted that prior to Yushchenko taking office, a governmental reform was instituted that devolved certain powers from the president to the parliament. This made it more difficult for him to institute promised reforms in the first year of his presidency. Finally, the date of the parliamentary election, scheduled barely more than a year after Yushchenko took office, meant that the parties never really left campaign mode, making it more difficult to govern.

According to Haran, the huge gains in freedom following the Orange revolution meant that opposition parties had a much easier time campaigning and the press was freer to criticize the government. The elections themselves, Haran said, were free and fair. While some violations may have occurred at the local level, there was no abuse of "administrative resources" coordinated at the national level, in contrast to the 2004 presidential election.

Haran also sought to dispel two misperceptions common in the West. The first was that the result of the election was a defeat for Yushchenko. Haran contended that this is too alarmist an interpretation, and that in fact the result indicated a failure on the part of the Our Ukraine block. The second misperception is that Ukraine is now a parliamentary country and the president is weak. Haran agreed that under the new system the Yushchenko administration has less power than the preceding Kuchma administration, but asserted that Yushchenko is by no means powerless. The system, according to Haran, resembles to a certain extent the French "double executive" model where the prime minister and president must cooperate to govern the county.

The voting pattern in the 2006 elections, Haran pointed out, was quite stable when measured against the 2004 presidential election. The former Orange coalition (including Yushchenko and Tymoshenko's parties plus other forces) received 46 percent of the vote in 2006, compared with 52 percent in 2004. Support for Yanukovych's camp also declined somewhat, from 44 percent in 2004 to about 40 percent in 2006 (including votes for Communists and other forces which supported Yanukovych in the 2004 run-off). The results of the local elections in 2006 also showed that the orange regions remained orange, and the blue regions (supporting Yanukovych's party) remained blue. However, at regional and local levels party composition of the councils is more diverse than in the parliament, and in some cases there are orange mayors in blue regions and vice versa, which will force different parties to find a way of cohabitation.

Haran predicted that now that the elections are over, the various parties would become more pragmatic. For example, if the Party of the Regions tries to represent itself in a modernized and civilized European manner, there will be a certain differentiation and reconfiguration of forces within it. The likely ruling coalition to emerge will include Yushchenko and Tymoshenko's blocs, with Tymoshenko emerging once again as prime minister as she emerged with a strong negotiating position after her electoral performance. However, many within Our Ukraine would prefer another head of the new Orange cabinet; moreover, a so-called "grand coalition" between Our Ukraine and Party of Regions is mentioned as a possibility by some politicians.

In conclusion, Haran noted that the 2006 parliamentary elections resulted in five political parties winning seats, with no party in the majority. This outcome will force a negotiated power sharing settlement, with the parties now working towards the next presidential elections in 2009. In other words, said Haran, "Ukraine is becoming normal and European."

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Kennan Institute

The Kennan Institute is the premier US center for advanced research on Russia and Eurasia and the oldest and largest regional program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The Kennan Institute is committed to improving American understanding of Russia, Ukraine, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the surrounding region though research and exchange.  Read more

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