Russia's Party Problem: United Russia, Putin, and the Fate of Democracy in Russia

At a recent Kennan Institute talk, Henry Hale, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University, discussed the situation facing Russian candidates seeking nomination through political parties. He opened his presentation by noting that most political theorists believe that democracy is "unimaginable" without parties. In his presentation, Hale outlined the costs and benefits associated with party membership as well as their role in the survival of democracy. Hale also discussed the role of a strong presidency and its implications for Russian political parties.

Hale argued that the relationship between political parties and candidates can be understood from a market perspective. Candidates act as "consumers" when selecting party membership, weighing the costs and benefits. Parties offer their goods and services, such as organizational skills, reputation with voters, material resources, and knowledge of political strategies to these candidates. Political affiliation offers candidates another important asset—political connections. In return, a party-affiliated candidate must balance supporting the party line, deferring his or her ambitions if the nomination list has limited slots, and cultivating relationships with party leaders. In Russia, Hale explained, alternative structures such as regional political machines and corporate structures serve as "party substitutes," offering candidates similar benefits to party membership.

Hale explained the importance of voter identification with political parties. Voters are familiar with the major parties' platforms and most identify themselves with the ideological stance of a specific party, which influences their voting decisions. Hale noted that during the 1999 Duma elections, average candidates who were supported by major political parties or alternative organizations received significantly more votes than average independent candidates.

Hale questioned whether party substitutes can evolve into political parties or coalitions. He pointed to Yelstin's resistance to create a presidential party from "above" in fear that this party would constrain the strong presidency. Additionally, he compared Moscow Mayor Luzhkov to Martin Van Buren in the 1820s, and their strategies to unite various political factions into one strong political party in Russia and the United States. Luzhkov's Fatherland-All Russia achieved some success, and was favored to win both the Parliamentary and Presidential elections in summer 1999. Putin upset this prediction and rallied the country's support behind him following the terrorist apartment bombings.

Since Putin assumed office, Hale contended, political affiliation has become more pervasive in Russian organs of power. With one of Putin's reforms, voters now select about half of their provincial legislators directly from party lists. The next Duma elections will be entirely by party lists. The ending of gubernatorial elections weakens a key party substitute, regional political machines. Hale also highlighted that Kremlin-supported parties emerged on both the right and left political spectrums.

Hale argued that a "super-presidency undermines and distorts the party system while challenging democracy." Whether Putin seeks a third term will impact democracy's fate. He will either stay on, resulting in continued constriction of the democratic space, or potentially face a lame duck situation. If the latter occurs, real competition could reemerge involving political parties, argued Hale.