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Ukraine after the Crisis: Domestic and Foreign Policy Issues

Volodymyr Dubovyk, Director, Center for International Studies, Odesa State University, and former Regional Exchange Scholar, Kennan InstituteThis event will be held in the 5th floor conference room.

Date & Time

Tuesday
Feb. 1, 2005
1:30pm – 3:30pm ET

Overview

At a recent Kennan Institute talk, Volodymyr Dubovyk, Director, Center for International Studies, Odesa State University, and former Regional Exchange Scholar, Kennan Institute, discussed the events surrounding Ukraine's 2004 presidential elections and possible policy directions for President Viktor Yushchenko and his government. Dubovyk noted that the phrase "Orange Revolution" has become popular to describe the mass protests that followed the November 21 elections. He argued, however, that although the mass movement in support of Yushchenko was a very important and positive event for Ukraine, it does not constitute a revolution because it did not lead to dramatic structural and societal changes. Dubovyk prefers to describe the events as a crisis, which began with the protests and ended when all sides agreed to invalidate the results of the November election and hold a new one in December.

According to Dubovyk, the crisis will be beneficial to Ukraine because it led to the removal of an unpopular, undemocratic, and corrupt government, and the rise of a new group of leaders who he hopes will do better. However, he warned that the new government has a very difficult job ahead and that Yushchenko may not be able to fulfill his campaign promises. One of the most serious problems that Yushchenko faces, Dubovyk argued, is the divided nature of Ukrainian society. Although Yushchenko had the support to win a free election, a significant minority of Ukrainians are strongly opposed to him because they see him as nationalist and anti-Russian. He added that divisions within Yushchenko's very broad-based group of supporters could also pose a problem for the new government. Nevertheless, he concluded, even small steps in the direction of democracy and economic development would be very useful for Ukraine.

Dubovyk made several suggestions for the domestic and foreign policy of the Yushchenko administration. He argued that the new government should not attempt to punish members of the previous government. Although he supports investigations into serious allegations such as the poisoning of Yushchenko during his campaign, Dubovyk believes that an attempt to drive supporters of former president Leonid Kuchma out of the government will be counterproductive. As a means of managing Ukraine's cultural and linguistic diversity, Dubovyk suggested that Ukraine could be changed from a unitary to a federal state without endangering the country's survival. On foreign policy, he maintained that Ukraine should make a firm commitment to eventual NATO and EU membership, but not neglect to build a strong and positive relationship with Russia at the same time.

Western countries can help Ukraine develop into a prosperous, democratic society, according to Dubovyk. They need to send clear signals that Ukraine will be allowed to join NATO and eventually the EU if specific conditions are met. He noted that NATO has been much more open to the idea of Ukraine's membership than has the EU. However, Dubovyk contended that it is in Europe's interest to foster the development of a strong Ukraine.

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Kennan Institute

The Kennan Institute is the premier US center for advanced research on Russia and Eurasia and the oldest and largest regional program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The Kennan Institute is committed to improving American understanding of Russia, Ukraine, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the surrounding region though research and exchange.  Read more

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