Ukraine's Political Landscape and the 2004 Presidential Elections

At a recent Kennan Institute seminar, Taras Kuzio of the University of Toronto, Rostyslav Pavlenko of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, and Paul D'Anieri of the University of Kansas discussed the current political situation in Ukraine and potential developments related to the presidential elections scheduled for 2004. All three speakers agreed that these elections will have important implications for Ukraine's political development. According to the constitution, current president Leonid Kuchma cannot run for a third term, and the ruling elite are fearful that if the elections are held, a candidate hostile to their interests may be elected. The speakers warned that it is possible that Ukraine's leaders will resort to political maneuvers to call off the elections or to give the parliament the power to elect the president—with potentially disastrous consequences for Ukraine's status in the international community.

Kuzio argued that Ukraine is one of a small group of CIS states that have not entirely reverted back to authoritarianism. He compared the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine with Georgia's 2003 elections, saying that elections were a dangerous time for the party of power in semi-authoritarian states because the results were not guaranteed. Kuzio warned that if an opposition candidate wins, the leaders of Ukraine might try to overturn the elections, as President Shevardnadze did in Georgia. Kuzio also argued that in Ukraine, the media is heavily controlled by the state, the opposition is disunited, and the population is alienated from politics. Under these conditions, it cannot be expected that Ukrainians will follow the Georgians' lead and rise up to protest the overturned elections.

Pavlenko noted that the most serious threat to Ukraine's current elite would be a victory for liberal leader Viktor Yushchenko, who consistently ranks as the most popular politician in the country. In response to this threat, Kuchma and his supporters have proposed legal reforms that will allow the parliament to elect the president. Although the Constitutional Court has ruled that such reform would be permissible, Pavlenko believes that there remain logistical and political obstacles to its implementation. The party of power cannot enact their desired reforms without the support of the Communist Party, which has demanded political concessions. Nevertheless, the current government is tied to the idea of legal maneuvering, according to Pavlenko, because Kuchma does not want a third term and there is not time for him to groom a successor.

D'Anieri disagreed with the contention that Kuchma could not find a successor capable of defeating Yushchenko in a relatively free election. He argued that Yushchenko would likely receive a plurality but not a majority in the first round of elections, making a second round necessary. Because his support is concentrated in less-populous Western Ukraine, Yushchenko could lose the second round to a party of power candidate such as Viktor Yanukovych, who has support in the East. D'Anieri argued that Ukraine's elite are concerned about the upcoming election as much because they fear each other as because they fear an opposition victory.