Diplomatic solutions are retaking center stage as recent developments—Iran’s parliamentary vote and the Netanyahu-Obama meeting—lead to a palpable softening of rhetoric, reducing the likelihood of imminent military action, Wilson Center expert Michael Adler tells Context.
While some experts predicted that the Arab rebellions of spring 2011 (and beyond) would widen the strategic, political, and even ideological gap between Arab states undergoing dramatic change and those defending the status quo, in fact, no such clear breach has occurred. Instead, Dawisha argues that economic crisis, escalating Shi’i-Sunni tensions, and the associated realpolitik concerns of the Western powers have dampened the potentially incendiary demonstration effect of Arab political revolts on the course of both domestic political change and regional politics.
The next year may be more turbulent than the last one. Handled well, it could also be more productive, writes Robin Wright in The New York Times.
Many analysts have rushed to declare a political outcome for Egypt's transition. Stacher argues that we must understand Egypt’s transition as a process of change rather than a finalized outcome. In doing so, he details the structural limits of governing Egypt as well as the receding capacity of state elites to deploy repression as a means of political control.
David Ottaway, a senior scholar at the Wilson Center, has recently returned from Tunisia. This piece is an overview of his observations of current challenges faced by Tunisia’s leadership.
"Even as we work to stabilize the region, we absolutely must keep in mind the end game. For al Qaeda and the rest of the transnational jihadist movement, the brass ring remains a major attack on Western soil," writes Jane Harman.
"U.S. officials must make clear to the Egyptian military and its supporters, as well as to Islamists, that Washington will choose its friends, and that they do not include regimes that curb popular participation at the polls in favor of street mobilization," writes Marina and David Ottaway in The Washington Post.
The Iran Primer Blog
The Islamists Are Coming
September 10, 2014 // 4:00pm — 5:30pm
Turkey’s Presidential Elections 2014 - What do they mean for Turkey’s democratization process, the Kurdish question and Turkey’s foreign policy?
September 11, 2014 // 12:00pm — 2:00pm
Experts & Staff
- Haleh Esfandiari // Director, Middle East Program
- Kendra Heideman // Program Associate
- Michael Adler // Public Policy Scholar
- Margot Badran // Senior Scholar
- Jason Brodsky // Policy Advisor to the Director, President and CEO and Research Associate
- Aaron David Miller // Vice President for New Initiatives and Distinguished Scholar
- William Green Miller // Senior Scholar
- Amal Mudallali // Senior Scholar
- David Ottaway // Senior Scholar
- Marina Ottaway // Senior Scholar
- Joby Warrick // Public Policy Scholar
- Robert Worth // Public Policy Scholar
- Robin Wright // USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Scholar