If these assumptions hold true, Wilson says, “144,000 new U.S. jobs could be created due to Mexico's economic growth in 2011.” A modest figure, considering America's jobs shortage right now, Wilson concedes. “But that's with everything else being equal,” he explains. “If we don't do anything else to stimulate trade, we can at least count on the growth rate to create jobs.”
Eric Olson and Christopher Wilson warn lawmakers against setting vague preconditions to “secure our border” before addressing immigration reform, which has sunk reform efforts in the past.
Christopher Wilson, from the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Mexican Institute, explains that the law, “is something that has been promoted by victim groups,” but “as written, the law could apply to a broad pool of people, and perhaps to those that have not been severely affected.”
Is this finally the year that Congress reforms U.S. immigration policy and provides a path to citizenship for the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the country? It would seem so, given the various encouraging statements from Republican and Democratic leaders over the past week. The policy calculations seem favorable, too, with years of net-zero migration from Mexico and the prospect of reduced migration pressures in the future. However, what remains highly unpredictable is the political calculus on immigration, with dynamics at the national and local level potentially at odds with each other.
“There is an enormous amount of optimism right now in the bilateral relationship, and the reason of that is because there’s an idea that this is a new beginning,” said Duncan Wood, co-author of the Wilson Center report, entitled “New Ideas for a New Era”.
Andrew Selee of the Wilson Center noted that we might see a return of circular migration, which would benefit Mexican communities. "Now people who go to the US without documents know that returning to Mexico ends their options so they stay in the US. With visa options, they may choose to come and go again."
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"While places like Ciudad Juarez have become safer, other places in the country have seen violence spike up," said Christopher Wilson, an associate at the Washington-based Mexico Institute. "Acapulco is one of the areas, and in fact, the entire state of Guerrero is one of the places, where there's been more violence recently."
Associate Director Eric L. Olson gives The New York Times his views on the future of Mexico-U.S. relations.
Mexico Institute Director Duncan Wood spoke to The Christian Science Monitor about last week's Pemex blast. “More recently opinion polls have suggested there has been a significant softening of those attitudes,” he said. “What all this really depends on is how ambitious the government wants to be.”