Wilson Center Experts
Richard Cincotta
Affiliation:
Political Demography Consultant, Environmental Change and Security Program; Demographer-in-Residence, The Stimson Center
Richard Cincotta is a consultant on political demography for the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program and demographer-in-residence at The Stimson Center.
Related Content for this Expert
Demographic & Environmental Dynamics Shape 'Global Trends 2030' Scenarios
February 26, 2013 // 10:00am — 12:00pm
The newest quadrennial report from the National Intelligence Council identifies the “game-changers, megatrends, and black swans” that may determine the trajectory of world affairs over the next 15 years, including population dynamics and natural resource scarcity. more
How Society and Security Are Changing in an Aging World
January 30, 2013 // 12:00pm — 2:00pm
“We are in the midst of a silent revolution,” said Ann Pawliczko, a senior technical advisor in the population and development branch at the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), quoting former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. “It is a revolution that extends well beyond demographics, with major economic, social, cultural, psychological, and spiritual implications.” more
Sex and World Peace: How the Treatment of Women Affects Development and Security
April 26, 2012 // 12:00pm — 2:00pm
Valerie Hudson and Chad Emmett present their new book in which they argue that the status of women is the single most important predictive factor in determining state stability. more
Political Demography: How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics [Monterey, CA]
March 30, 2012 // 8:30am — 2:00pm
Ten years ago, demography was hardly on the radar screen of policymakers. Today, it’s a part of almost every discussion of America’s long-term fiscal, economic, or foreign policy direction. With the world’s population hitting 7 billion last year, and headed for 10 billion in the next century, it is crucial to assess the impact of global population trends on international security and national politics. Top demographic security experts discuss this important trend at a half day workshop at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. more
Book Launch: Human Population: Its Influences on Biodiversity
May 11, 2011 // 3:00pm — 5:00pm
Measurements of "human population density and growth can be used to identify changes in the viability of native species, and more directly, in changes in ecological systems or habitat quality," said Richard Cincotta, consultant at the Environmental Change and Security Program and demographer-in-residence at the Stimson Center, speaking at the book launch of Human Population: Its Influence on Biological Diversity. more
The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War
December 16, 2003 // 11:00pm
Do trends in human population affect a country's chances of civil war? According to a new report from Population Action International, countries with a high number of young adults were more likely to suffer a civil conflict during the 1990s. more
Tunisia Predicted: Demography and the Probability of Liberal Democracy in the Greater Middle East
March 24, 2011 // 12:00pm — 2:00pm
In 2008, demographer Richard Cincotta predicted that between 2010 and 2020 the states along the northern rim of Africa – Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt – would each reach a demographically measurable point where the presence of at least one liberal democracy (and perhaps two), among the five, would not only be possible, but probable. Recent months have brought possible first steps to validate that prediction. more
The Security Demographic: Assessing the Evidence
June 13, 2006 // 12:00pm — 2:00pm
Drawing on three decades of data, Richard Cincotta and Jack Goldstone explore the relationship between demography and conflict—critical to the USAID reexamination of the Fragile/Rebuilding States strategy. more
Demographic Security Comes of Age
Jul 07, 2011Richard Cincotta highlights the role of demographic transition within a nuanced understanding of demographic security issues. more
Health, Population, and Fragility: Insights From a Meeting Series
Jul 07, 2011The series seeks to broaden understanding of health and population issues as part of the problem and part of the solution to instability challenges, as well as foster debate about the correlations between fragility and population dynamics. more
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Demographic & Environmental Dynamics Shape 'Global Trends 2030' Scenarios
February 26, 2013 // 10:00am — 12:00pm
The newest quadrennial report from the National Intelligence Council identifies the “game-changers, megatrends, and black swans” that may determine the trajectory of world affairs over the next 15 years, including population dynamics and natural resource scarcity.
How Society and Security Are Changing in an Aging World
January 30, 2013 // 12:00pm — 2:00pm
“We are in the midst of a silent revolution,” said Ann Pawliczko, a senior technical advisor in the population and development branch at the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), quoting former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. “It is a revolution that extends well beyond demographics, with major economic, social, cultural, psychological, and spiritual implications.”
Sex and World Peace: How the Treatment of Women Affects Development and Security
April 26, 2012 // 12:00pm — 2:00pm
Valerie Hudson and Chad Emmett present their new book in which they argue that the status of women is the single most important predictive factor in determining state stability.
Political Demography: How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics [Monterey, CA]
March 30, 2012 // 8:30am — 2:00pm
Ten years ago, demography was hardly on the radar screen of policymakers. Today, it’s a part of almost every discussion of America’s long-term fiscal, economic, or foreign policy direction. With the world’s population hitting 7 billion last year, and headed for 10 billion in the next century, it is crucial to assess the impact of global population trends on international security and national politics. Top demographic security experts discuss this important trend at a half day workshop at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.
Book Launch: Human Population: Its Influences on Biodiversity
May 11, 2011 // 3:00pm — 5:00pm
Measurements of "human population density and growth can be used to identify changes in the viability of native species, and more directly, in changes in ecological systems or habitat quality," said Richard Cincotta, consultant at the Environmental Change and Security Program and demographer-in-residence at the Stimson Center, speaking at the book launch of Human Population: Its Influence on Biological Diversity.
Tunisia Predicted: Demography and the Probability of Liberal Democracy in the Greater Middle East
March 24, 2011 // 12:00pm — 2:00pm
In 2008, demographer Richard Cincotta predicted that between 2010 and 2020 the states along the northern rim of Africa – Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt – would each reach a demographically measurable point where the presence of at least one liberal democracy (and perhaps two), among the five, would not only be possible, but probable. Recent months have brought possible first steps to validate that prediction.
The Security Demographic: Assessing the Evidence
June 13, 2006 // 12:00pm — 2:00pm
Drawing on three decades of data, Richard Cincotta and Jack Goldstone explore the relationship between demography and conflict—critical to the USAID reexamination of the Fragile/Rebuilding States strategy.
The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War
December 16, 2003 // 11:00pm
Do trends in human population affect a country's chances of civil war? According to a new report from Population Action International, countries with a high number of young adults were more likely to suffer a civil conflict during the 1990s.
Demographic Trends and Policy Implications in Northeast Asia
January 26, 2011 // 2:30pm — 4:30pm
With populations of Asian nations declining, a panel of experts discusses the trends and looks at the effect on social policy and regional dynamics.
Half a Chance: Youth Bulges and Transitions to Liberal Democracy
Jul 07, 2011Using age-structure data, Richard Cincotta assesses the fragility of existing liberal democracies and forecasts when new ones will emerge.
Population Age Structure and Its Relation to Civil Conflict: A Graphic Metric
Jul 07, 2011The authors use population age structure and recent history of civil unrest to project risks of civil conflict into the future.
Health, Population, and Fragility: Insights From a Meeting Series
Jul 07, 2011The series seeks to broaden understanding of health and population issues as part of the problem and part of the solution to instability challenges, as well as foster debate about the correlations between fragility and population dynamics.
Demographic Security Comes of Age
Jul 07, 2011Richard Cincotta highlights the role of demographic transition within a nuanced understanding of demographic security issues.
The U.S. National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2015: Excerpts, Commentaries, and Response
Jul 07, 2011ECSP invited a wide range of scientists, government officials, nongovernmental activists, and defense analysts from across the globe to write commentaries on Global Trends 2015.