CARNEGIE COMMISSION ON PREVENTING DEADLY CONFLICT
"Preventing Deadly Conflict"
Draft Course Overview

Objectives This syllabus grows out of the work of the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict and outlines a course that focuses on conflict prevention. The course goals are 1) to understand the phenomenon of deadly violence; 2) to develop understandings of ways to prevent such violence; and 3) to examine resources that exist in the international community to undertake preventive action.

Course Structure The course is divided into three parts. The first part addresses the politics, economics and sociology of violent conflict in the post-Cold War world. The second part addresses the mechanisms that the international community could use to help prevent violence. The third section explores the people and institutions that could use these tools. In addition, selected topics for auxiliary or alternative lectures are included in the "Special Topics" section in Appendix I at the end of the syllabus. A bibliography of supplementary readings appears in Appendix II. The course lends itself to evaluation by examination and/or a term paper.

Course Materials The main text for the course is the Commission's final report, Preventing Deadly Conflict. Useful primary materials include the Charter of the United Nations, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugee's State of the World's Refugees, and the United Nations Development Program's Human Development Report, and the World Bank's annual World Development Report.

"Preventing Deadly Conflict"
Model Syllabus
Current as of September 13, 1999

PART I: OVERVIEW

1. The Nature and Sources of Violent Conflict: Changes and Continuities:
A Preventive Approach to Modern Conflict

The opening session introduces the main themes of the course, explores the nature and sources of violent conflict and sensitizes the student to the possibilities for preventing such conflict.

Questions

  • What is new or distinctive about violent conflict in the post-Cold War world?
  • Is the predominance of intrastate wars a passing post-Cold War phenomenon, or a hallmark of a new era? Why?
  • Who is best suited to prevent deadly conflict? Discuss cases in which the international community, regional organizations and individual cases took the lead. What are their comparative advantages?

Readings
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. Preface & Prologue

Jentleson, Bruce W. "Preventive Diplomacy: A Conceptual and Analytic Framework." in Jentleson, Bruce W. ed., Opportunities Missed, Opportunities Seized: Preventive Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World. Lanham MD: Rowman and Littlefield, forthcoming.

Lund, Michael S. "Underrating Preventive Diplomacy." Foreign Affairs. July/August 1995, vol. 74, no. 4. pp. 160-163.

Rubin, Barnett R. Cases and Strategies for Preventive Action. New York: The Century Foundation Press, 1998.

Stedman, Stephen John. "Alchemy for a New World Order: Overselling 'Preventive Diplomacy.'" Foreign Affairs. May 1995. pp. 14-20.

United Nations. Charter of the United Nations. The United Nations Department of Public Information. New York: 1997.

2. Sources of Violent Conflict: Ethnicity, Culture, and Sociology

Questions

  • To what extent are "ethnic conflicts" really about ethnic differences? What other factors play a role?
  • In what ways does civic nationalism differ from ethnic nationalism?
  • What are some examples of ethnic groups managing their differences without violence? How did they manage to overcome their differences?

Readings
Barber, Benjamin R. "Fantasy of Fear." Harvard International Review. Winter 1997-1998, vol. 20, no. 1. pp. 66-71

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 25-35.

The Carter Center. 1997-1998 State of World Conflict Report. Atlanta: The Carter Center, Conflict Resolution Program, 1998.

Crocker, Chester, and Fen Osler Hampson with Pamela Aall, eds, Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to International Conflict. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1996. pp. 53-93.

Huntington, Samuel P. "The Clash of Civilizations?" Foreign Affairs. Summer 1993, vol 72, no. 3. pp. 22-49.

Ignatieff, Michael. Blood and Belonging: Journeys into the New Nationalism. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1993.

Montville, Joseph V. Conflict and Peacemaking in Multiethnic Societies. New York, NY: Lexington Books, 1991. Section 1: The Varieties of Ethnic Conflict Analysis. pp. 1-130.

3. Sources of Violent Conflict: Economic Factors

Questions

  • What are the links between poverty and violence?
  • How does the development process foster the emergence of violent conflict?
  • Was ethnic tension the true cause of conflict in Rwanda? Discuss how economic factors–for example the sudden drop in coffee prices in Rwanda–can serve as a catalyst for violence.

Readings
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 11-21.

Maren, Michael. The Road to Hell: The Ravaging Effects of Foreign Aid and International Charity. New York, NY: Free Press, 1997.

Sellström, Tom and Lennart Wohlgemuth. Rebuilding Post-War Rwanda. The International Response to Conflict and Genocide: Lessons Learned from the Rwanda Experience, Study 1: Historical Perspective: Some Explanatory Factors. Odense, Sweden: Steering Committee of the Joint Evaluation of Emergency Assistance to Rwanda, March 1996. pp. 19-20, 36-39.

The World Bank. Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn’t, and Why. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1998.

The World Bank Group. World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: The World Bank Group, 1998. Chapters 1, 4, 5, 6.

4. Sources of Violent Conflict: the Competition for Resources

Questions

  • What are some of the variables in environmental change that contribute to violent conflict?
  • How does human action contribute to problems of scarcity?
  • What are examples of "common pool" resources being a cause of conflict?
  • How can preventive strategies improve chances that environmental scarcity will not yield to violence?

Readings
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict. Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report. Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 11-15.

Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. and Jessica Blitt. Ecoviolence: Links Among Environment, Population and Security. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 1998. pp. 1-15.

Kennedy, Donald. Environmental Quality and Regional Conflict. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, December 1998.

Renner, Michael. Fighting for Survival: Environmental Decline, Social Conflict, and the New Age of Insecurity. New York, NY: Norton, 1996.

The World Bank Group. World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: The World Bank Group, 1998. Chapter 3.

5. Light Weapons and Civil Conflict

Questions

  • How does the proliferation of small arms contribute to the potential for mass violence?
  • What are the arguments for and against arming opposition groups in conflict situations?
  • What are the dimensions of the contradiction between great states being the greatest supplier of arms and also providing the most funds for humanitarian assistance?
  • What factors should be considered when crafting a small arms control regime to address the root causes of a conflict? What are the political and technical obstacles?

Readings
Boutwell, Jeffrey, and Michael T. Klare, eds., Light Weapons and Civil Conflict: Controlling the Tools of Violence. Lanham MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 1999. pp. 9-27, 186-195, 217-230.

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 16-18.

Goldring, Natalie. "Bridging the Gap: Light and Major Conventional Weapons in Recent Conflicts." London: British American Security Information Council, 1997.

Schweizer, Peter and John Tirman. "Q: Should the United States allow arms to flow to the Kosovo rebels?; No: Arming 'Freedom Fighters' in Kosovo Won't Avert Bloodshed or Lead to More Democracy. Insight on the News. May 3, 1999. pp. 24-27.

Silajdzic, Haris, "Since the UN Can't Protect Us, Lift the Arms Embargo; Bosnia-Herzegovina. " New Perspectives Quarterly. June 22, 1995, Vol. 12,; No. 3. p. 38

United Nations, "Report of the Panel of Governmental Experts on Small Arms," Report #A/52/298 from the secretary-general to the UN General Assembly, August 27, 1997. p. 21.

6. The Spread of Violence: Insurgencies and Terrorism

Questions

  • What conditions lead to the emergence of insurgent groups?
  • How does a government’s reaction to terrorist acts contribute to or retard the development of insurgencies?
  • What strategies appear to have the greatest effect in mitigating the damage that terrorists can inflict on a society and preventing the escalation of violence?
  • Identify some of the new terrorist threats and how governments and agencies are attempting to control these threats.

Readings

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 16-19.

Hoffman, Bruce. "Is Europe Soft on Terrorism?" Foreign Policy. Summer 1999, no. 115. pp. 62-76.

Hoffman, Bruce and Paul Wilkinson, with Suzanne M. Neilson, A Violent Trajectory: How Terrorist Campaigns Evolve into Insurgencies. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, forthcoming.

Laqueur, Walter Ze'ev. Terrorism. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1977.

RAND. Countering the New Terrorism. Washington, D.C.: RAND, 1999.

Stern, Jessica. The Ultimate Terrorists. Cambridge, MA and London: Harvard University Press, 1999. pp. 107-127.

 

Part II: Operational and structural prevention

Part II addresses the preventive actions the international community can take to address deadly conflict. This section introduces the concepts of structural and operational prevention. Structural prevention addresses the long-term issues that can lead to violent conflict, while operational prevention considers steps to forestall imminent violence.

7. An Overview to Preventive Action: Structural and Operational Prevention

Questions

  • How can the actions and policies (economic, military, or diplomatic) of outsiders exacerbate or mitigate potentially dangerous situations? Use examples from specific conflicts.
  • Why must the security, well-being and justice needs of people be met in order to prevent conflict?
  • Give some examples of actions that can be or have been taken by the international community, which could be described as structural prevention. Describe the importance of each.
  • Describe important factors to help ensure the success of operational prevention.

Readings

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 39-102.

Hamburg, David and Jane E. Holl. "Preventing Deadly Conflict: From Global Housekeeping to Neighborhood Watch." in Global Public Goods: International Cooperation in the 21st Century. New York: Oxford University Press, 1999. pp. 366-381.

Sen, Amartya. The Standard of Living. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 1987.

Stremlau, John and Helen Zille. A House No Longer Divided. Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, July 1997.

8. Early Warning

Questions

  • How useful are standard early warning indicators in predicting deadly conflict?
  • What challenges do national governments and non-governmental organizations face in working together to track "hot spots"?
  • How can the lack of intelligence services in international organizations be overcome? Should international organizations have intelligence services of their own?
  • When should national governments provide information or intelligence support to international organizations? When should non-governmental organizations provide information about pending crises to national governments and international organizations?
  • Describe the role and comparative advantage of the following actors in providing early warning: the business community and MNCs, the religious community, the media and NGOs.

Readings
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 43-47.

Davies, John L. and Ted Robert Gurr, eds. Preventive Measures: Building Risk Assessment and Crisis Early Warning Systems. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 1998. pp. 27-69, 186-218, 230-240.

Forum on Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER). A Manual for Early Warning and Early Response. London: Forum on Early Warning and Early Response, 1998.

9. Early Action

Questions

  • What are the pros and cons of taking early action?
  • How would you try to convince a member of the U.S. House of Representatives that the costs of early political, economic or military involvement in a far off civil war is greater than the cost of post-conflict reconstruction?
  • How does the logic of early warning interact with the logic of action? How might their differences be reconciled? What factors make it difficult to translate early warning into early action?

Readings
Brown, Michael E., and Richard N. Rosecrance. The Costs of Conflict: Prevention and Cure in the Global Arena. Lanham MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 1999.

Cranna, Michael. "What Is To Be Done? Policy Incentives for the International Community." in Cranna, Michael, ed. The True Cost of Conflict. Saferworld. New York: The New Press, 1994. pp. 197-202.

George, Alexander L. and Jane E. Holl. The Warning-Response Problem and Missed Opportunities in Preventive Diplomacy. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, May 1997.

Rotberg, Robert I. "Conclusions: NGOs, Early Warning, Early Action and Preventive Diplomacy." In Rotberg, Robert I., ed. Vigilance and Vengeance: NGOs Preventing Ethnic Conflict in Divided Societies. Washington, D.C.: The Brooking Institution Press, 1996. pp. 283-288.

10. Preventive Diplomacy

Questions

  • How does "preventive diplomacy" differ from traditional diplomacy?
  • What means exist for the UN secretary-general to conduct preventive diplomacy? What conditions favor its use?
  • What is the relationship between Track One and Track Two diplomacy? What problem do independent diplomatic efforts pose to formal efforts?
  • The United Nations has played an important role in most of the cases studied in the above readings by providing the mediator, the forum, or implementing institutions necessary for the mediation effort. Under what circumstances, if any, should national, regional or private mediators or arbitrators take the lead in preventive diplomatic efforts?

Readings
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 48-52.

Boutros-Ghali, Boutros. An Agenda for Peace, New York: United Nations Publications, 1995.

Eliasson, Jan. "Establishing Trust in the Healer: Preventive Diplomacy and the Future of the United Nations." in Cahill, Kevin M. ed. Preventive Diplomacy: Stopping Wars Before They Start. New York, NY: Basic Books, 1996. pp. 318-343.

Jentleson, Bruce W. "Preventive Diplomacy: Analytical Conclusions and Policy Lessons." in Jentleson, Bruce W. ed., Opportunities Missed, Opportunities Seized: Preventive Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World. Lanham MD: Rowman and Littlefield, October 1999.

Vance, Cyrus and David A. Hamburg. Pathfinders for Peace: A Report to the UN Secretary-General on the Role of Special Representatives and Personal Envoys. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, September 1997.

Zartman, I. William. "Lessons for Theory." in Zartman, I. William. ed., Negotiating to Prevent Escalation and Violence. Lanham MD: Rowman and Littlefield, forthcoming.

11. Mediation and Arbitration

Questions

  • To what extent does a mediator need to be able to offer political, military or economic inducements or threaten punitive measures to the parties?
  • Identify specific instances when mediation or arbitration were successful in settling disputes. Why were they successful?
  • How effective is the International Court of Justice in dealing with conflict? How can it be strengthened for this purpose?

Readings
Barton, John and Melanie Greenberg. "Lessons of the Case Studies." in Greenberg, Melanie, John Barton and Margaret McGuinness, eds., Words Over War: Mediation and Arbitration to Prevent Deadly Conflict. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, forthcoming.

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 93-94, 106-107 (Box 5.1).

12. Track Two Diplomacy

Questions

  • What are some specific conflicts in which business leaders have helped to prevent conflict? How did their position as unofficial diplomats give them an advantage over official diplomatic efforts?
  • What are some situations in which official methods of diplomacy may be ineffective for preventing or ending conflict? What benefits could the following actors provide in these situations: the media, the religious community, the scientific community, NGOs?
  • Does the increasing importance of non-state actors in diplomacy threaten the role of governments in determining foreign policy? Is this situation dangerous?

Readings
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 50-52.

Diamond, Louise and John McDonald. Multi-Track Diplomacy: A Systems Approach to Peace. West, Hartford, CT: Kumarian Press, 1996.

McDonald, John and Diane B. Bendahmane, eds. Conflict Resolution: Track Two Diplomacy. Washington, DC: Foreign Service Institute, U.S. Department of State, 1987.

Notter, James and John McDonald. "Track Two Diplomacy: Nongovernmental Strategies for Peace." U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda. http://www.usia.gov, December 1996, vol. 1, no. 19.

13. Economic Measures: Sanctions

Questions

  • Under what conditions can economic sanctions help prevent conflict?
  • When and under what conditions should unilateral sanctions be employed?
  • How can sanctions be adequately targeted to avoid the suffering of innocent people?
  • How does the use of sanctions inhibit the international community’s ability to affect outcomes and influence policy through other means?
  • Should economic sanctions always precede military intervention as a means for gaining compliance to UN demands? Should sanctions always be backed up by a credible threat of military intervention?

Readings
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 52-56.

Haass, Richard N. "Sanctioning Madness." Foreign Affairs. November/December 1997, vol. 76, no 6. pp. 74-85.

Stremlau, John. Sharpening International Sanctions: Toward a Stronger Role for the United Nations. Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, November 1996.

The United Nations. Charter of the United Nations New York: United Nations Department of Public Information, 1997. Chapter 7, Articles 39-41.

United Nations Security Council Resolutions 661, 670, 700, 706, 712 and 986. http://wwwun.org/Docs/scres/

United Nations Security Council Resolutions 752, 757, 787 and 820. http://wwwun.org/Docs/scres/

United Nations Security Council Resolutions 748 and 883. http://wwwun.org/Docs/scres/

14. Economic Measures: Inducements

Questions

  • What kinds of inducements can the following actors provide in situations of incipient conflict: states, business leaders, the United Nations?
  • When do inducements become appeasement?
  • Under what conditions is the use of inducements more appropriate than the use of sanctions? How should the use of sanctions and inducements be coordinated?
  • Should the International Monetary Fund loans be conditioned on good governance practices? What are the arguments for and against using IMF loans as inducements?
  • In which cases might conditionality be used as an alternative to inducement?

Readings
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 56-57.

Cortright, David. "Incentives and Cooperation in International Affairs." and "Incentives Strategies for Preventing Conflict." in Cortright, David., ed., The Price of Peace: Incentives and International Conflict Prevention. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 1997. pp.  3-18, 267-301, respectively.

Foran, Virginia and Leonard S. Spector. "The Application of Incentives to Nuclear Proliferation." in Cortright, David., ed., The Price of Peace: Incentives and International Conflict Prevention. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 1997. pp. 21-53.

15. Assertive Measures: Use of Force

Questions

  • How have policy-makers and academics sought to connect strategic interests with humanitarian concerns in efforts to gain support for interventions? By doing so, what are some of the implications for future decisions?
  • What are some of the possible dangers and benefits of engaging in the new "humanitarian" conflicts?
  • Since the end of the Cold War, more assertive measures to end internal conflicts have included humanitarian interventions. How might international interventions into sovereign states be reconciled with the commitment to the protection of sovereignty outlined in the UN Charter?
  • What processes and norms influence the perceived legitimacy of the use of force?
  • In what ways might the idea of human security create an international duty to protect?

Readings
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 59-65, 174-178.

Carter, Ashton B. And William J. Perry. Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1999.

Damrosch, Lori Fisler. "‘Sovereignty’ and International Organizations." UC Davis Journal of International Law and Policy. Spring 1997. pp. 159.

Haass, Richard. Intervention. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1994.

Holl, Jane E. "From Whence Commeth Our Help: Toward an International Duty to Rescue." Available on Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict website at www.ccpdc.org.

Nye, Joseph, Jr. "Redefining the National Interest." Foreign Affairs. July/August 1999, vol. 78, no. 4. pp. 22-35.

The United Nations. Charter of the United Nations New York: United Nations Department of Public Information, 1997. Chapters 6, 7.

16.Assertive Measures: Preventive Deployment and Peacekeeping

Questions

  • What criteria might be used to determine when—in what situations and at what point in the escalation of conflict—to deploy forces? What criteria might be used to determine the duration of engagement for a rapid reaction force?
  • Which states should contribute resources to such a force and in what proportions? How might states that are initially unwilling to contribute resources be compelled to do so?
  • What are the differences between peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peace enforcement? Should the UN be responsible for providing all three?
  • What are the obstacles to international coordination in cases of humanitarian intervention?
  • Should military forces involved in the given conflict help relief agencies provide humanitarian aid? On the other hand, is it possible for humanitarian aid groups to remain neutral?

Readings
Brimmer, Esther. "Third Time Right: Haiti." in Roderick von Lipsey, editor, Breaking the Cycle: A Framework for Conflict Intervention. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1997. pp. 173-194.

Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade. "Towards a Rapid Reaction Capability for the United Nations." September 1995. http://www.dfait-maeci.gc.ca/english/news/newsletr/un/rap1.htm

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 64-67.

Feil, Scott. Preventing Genocide: How the Early Use of Force Might Have Succeeded in Rwanda. Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, April 1998.

Goodpaster, Andrew. When Diplomacy is not Enough: Managing Multinational Military Interventions. Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, July 1996.

Posen, Barry R. "Military Responses to Refugee Disasters." in Brown, Michael E, Owen R. Coté, Jr., Sean M. Lynn-Jones and Steven E. Miller, eds. Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1997. pp. 334-373.

17. Civil–Military Cooperation

Questions

  • What factors impede effective civil-military coordination in an international intervention?
  • What capabilities and processes need to be created or modified to improve civil-military coordination?

Readings
Joulwan, George A. and Christopher C. Shoemaker. Civilian-Military Cooperation in the Prevention of Deadly Conflict. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, December 1998.

Lute, Douglas E. Improving National Capacity to Respond to Complex Emergencies: The U.S. Experience. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, April 1998.

18. Policing

Questions

  • How can civilian safety in post-conflict society be reinforced?
  • Is policing merely a strategy for creating space between warring parties and monitoring peace agreements, or is it an effective strategy for preventing the re-emergence of violence? What strengths and weaknesses does policing have as a preventive measure?

Readings
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 63-65.

Oakley, Robert B., Michael J. Dziedzic, and Eliot M. Goldberg. Policing the New World Disorder: Peace Operations and Public Security. Washington, D.C.: National Defense University, 1998. pp. 1-40, 253-314.

19. Security

Questions

  • Are policing operations and structural measures taken to increase a region’s long-term security mutually exclusive? What are some examples of each of these kinds of strategies employed in the same region? How should these two types of prevention strategies interact?
  • How might arms control measures—Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Chemical Weapons Convention, and the Biological Weapons Convention, for example—decrease the potential for interstate conflict? Could they also contribute to the prevention of intrastate violence?
  • The post-Cold War increase in intra-state violence makes people feel threatened by their own state. What measures might the international community take with the objective of prioritizing and protecting human security? How might these measures help prevent intra-state conflict?
  • How does the proliferation of small arms contribute to the potential for mass violence? What mechanisms might be used to reduce the availability of these weapons?

Readings
Axworthy, Lloyd. "Human Security: Safety for People in a Changing World." Ottawa, Canada: Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, April 1999. http://www.dfait-maeci.gc.ca/foreignp/HumanSecurity/secur-e.htm

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict. Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report. Washington, D.C., Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 70-81.

Nolan, Janne E. and John D. Steinbruner. "A Transition Strategy for the 1990s." in Janne E. Nolan, Ed., Global Engagement: Cooperation and Security in the 21st Century. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1994. pp. 573-93.

Boutwell, Jeffrey and Michael Klare, Eds. Light Weapons and Civil Conflict. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 1999.

20. Well-being

Questions

  • What is the relationship between economic well-being and peace?
  • Globalization offers great opportunities, but there are also negative effects–especially for developing countries. What are some of these effects? What can the international community do to mitigate these effects?
  • What role could the donor community play in promoting good governance? What role could it play?

Readings


Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict. Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report. Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 82-88.

Esman, Milton J. "Economic Performance and Ethnic Conflict." In Montville, Joseph V., ed., Conflict and Peacemaking in Multiethnic Societies. New York: Lexington Books, 1991, pp. 477-490.

Hirst, Paul and Grahame Thompson. Globalization in Question: The International Economy and the Possibilities of Governance. Cambridge, MA: Policy Press, 1996.

Kaul, Inge, Isabelle Grunberg and Marc A. Stern. "Defining Global Public Goods." in Inge Kaul, Isabelle Grunberg and Marc A. Stern, eds., Global Public Goods: International Cooperation in the 21st Century. New York: Oxford University Press, 1999. pp. 2-19.

Renner, Michael. Fighting for Survival. New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1996. pp. 122-131.

Rodrik, Dani. Has Globalization Gone Too Far? Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1997.

United, Nations. Universal Declaration of Human Rights, DPI/876 New York: United Nations Department of Public Information, 1995.

21. Justice

Questions

  • To what degree should the international community’s search for justice and accountability focus solely on the actions of leaders in conflict?
  • The International Criminal Tribunals in Rwanda and Yugoslavia and the Truth and Reconciliation are attempts to mete out justice after conflict. What contributions do ad hoc tribunals offer to a post-conflict society? How do these tribunals’ capacities differ from national reconciliation programs? How do each of these measures contribute to preventing future conflict?
  • What are the issues surrounding the debate in the United States over International Criminal Court ratification?
  • How might the establishment of a legitimate domestic judicial system contribute to conflict prevention? How can the international community help emerging democracies realize this development?

Readings
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 89-98.

Frye, Alton. Toward An International Criminal Court?. New York, NY: Council on Foreign Relations, 1999.

Goldstone, Richard J. "Justice as a Tool for Peace-Making: Truth Commissions and International Criminal Tribunals." New York University Journal of International Law & Politics. Spring 1996, vol. 28, no. 3. pp. 485+.

Human Rights Law Program, Harvard Law School and the World Peace Foundation. Truth Commissions; A Comparative Assessment. An Interdisciplinary Discussion Held at Harvard Law School, May 1996. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Law School Human Rights Program, 1997.

Kritz, Neil J. ed. Transitional Justice: How Emerging Democracies Reckon with Former Regimes. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1995.

United Nations. Charter of the United Nations. New York: United Nations Department of Public Information, 1997. Chapter 14, Articles 92-96.

United Nations. Comprehensive Report on Lessons Learned from the United Nations Assistance Mission for Rwanda (UNAMIR). Department of Peacekeeping Affairs. October 1993-April 1996. http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/lessons/rwanda.htm. Paras. 125-147.

United Nations. Statute of the International Court of Justice. New York: United Nations Department of Public Information, 1997.

United Nations. Statute of the International Criminal Court. http://www.un.org, 17 July 1998.

United Nations. Universal Declaration of Human Rights, DPI/876. New York: United Nations Department of Public Information, 1995.

United Nations General Assembly. Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. http://www.un.org, 12 January 1951, No.1021.

Wedgewood, Ruth. "Fiddling in Rome: America and the International Criminal Court." Foreign Affairs. November/December 1998, vol. 77, no. 6. pp. 20-24.

Part III: Strategies for Preventive Action

22. Overview: Strategies for Prevention

Questions

  • What are the broad aims of preventive action?
  • What are the elements causing tension between pursuing national interests and preventive action?
  • What are some early indicators that a situation may rise to violent conflict? How can international organizations, governments and NGOs influence leaders to decide against resorting to violence to achieve their aims?
  • What priorities should the international community set when beginning to rebuild a war-torn society?
  • What is the role of "accountability" in building a culture of prevention?

Readings
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. Chapter 2, pg. 25-37; Chapter 7, pg. 151-165.

23. Who Should Do the Work: States

Questions

  • What role do states and their leaders play in preventing deadly conflict?
  • How do domestic and international pressures serve to constrain the ability of a leader to act in conflict situations both within and outside of his/her country? Use examples.
  • How would you try to convince a member of the U.S. House of Representatives that the costs of early political, economic or military involvement in a distant civil conflict is greater than the cost of post-conflict reconstruction?

Readings
Boutros Boutros-Ghali, George Bush, Jimmy Carter, Mikhail Gorbachev, and Desmond Tutu, Essays on Leadership. Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, December 1998.

Brown, Michael E. and Richard N. Rosecrance. The Costs of Conflict: Prevention and Cure in the Global Arena. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 1999.

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 105-109.

Hermann, Margaret G. and Joe D. Hagan. "International Decision Making: Leadership Matters." Foreign Policy, Spring 1998, no. 110. pp. 124-135.

24. Who Should Do the Work: The United Nations System

Questions

  • What are the advantages of carrying out multilateral military activities under the auspices of the UN?
  • How do the P-5 countries balance protecting national interests and maintaining the legitimacy of the Security Council?
  • How can the secretary-general enhance the preventive tools that he can deploy on his own authority?
  • Some analysts have suggested that the World Bank use its programs to encourage both economic efficiency (its traditional focus) and economic equity (the distribution of income across the whole population and between ethnic groups). Are the two goals mutually compatible or mutually exclusive? Which goal is more important in establishing good governance and preventing conflict in failing states?
  • As the World Bank’s programs become more politicized, does the organization run the risk of being perceived as a tool of the major donor states rather than as a more neutral development organization? Does this imply new responsibility for the major donor states?
  • How can IFI’s best track states in danger of collapsing into violence? Under what circumstances is financial assistance the best means to prevent intrastate conflict? What sorts of specific programs should it implement to try to prevent deadly conflict in these states?
  • How can the UN Agencies: UNDP, UNHCR, WHO, etc. adapt this progress to take account of preventive possibilities? Should they adapt?

Readings
Boyce, James K. and Manuel Pastor, Jr. "Aid for Peace." World Policy Journal. Summer, 1998, vol. 15, no. 2. pp. 42-49.

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 129-145.

Evans, Gareth. "Cooperative Security and Intra-state Conflict." Foreign Policy. Fall 1994, no. 96. pp. 3-20.

Helms, Jesse. "Saving the UN: A Challenge to the Next Secretary-General." Foreign Affairs. September/October 1996, vol. 75, no. 5. pp. 2-7.

International Monetary Fund. Annual Report of the Executive Board for the Financial Year Ended April 30, 1998. http://www.imf.org

Peck, Connie. Sustainable Peace: The Role of the UN and Regional Organizations in Preventing Conflict. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 1998, pp. 67-97.

Roberts, Adam and Benedict Kinsbury, eds. United Nations, Divided World: The UN’s Roles in International Relations. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1993. Second edition. pp. 1-62.

Stremlau, John and Francisco Sagasti. Preventing Deadly Conflict: Does the World Bank Have a Role? Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, July 1998.

United Nations. Charter of the United Nations. The United Nations Department of Public Information. New York: 1997.

Weiss, Thomas G., David P. Forsythe and Roger A. Coate. "Conclusion: Learning From Change." in Weiss, Thomas G., David P. Forsythe and Roger A. Coate, eds. The United Nations and Changing World Politics. Boulder: Westview, 1997. Second edition. pp. 265-283.

The World Bank Group. The World Bank Annual Report 1998. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1998.

25. Who Should do the Work: Regional and Sub-regional Organizations

Questions

  • What comparative advantage do regional organizations have for early detection and early preventive action?
  • What can members of regional organizations do to offset the power of a regional hegemon that is also a member of the organization? What can the international community do to help?
  • To what extent are regional arrangements subordinate to the UN Charter? For which actions do regional organizations need authorization from the United Nations?
  • To what extent can regional bodies use the attraction of membership and the sanction of expulsion to encourage internal reform in states? (Example, Burma)

Readings
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict. Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report. Washington, DC, Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 146-149, 169-173.

Peck, Connie. Sustainable Peace: The Role of the UN and Regional Organizations in Preventing Conflict. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 1998, pp. 100-183.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The North Atlantic Treaty. http://www.nato.int

Organization of American States. Charter of the Organization of American States. http://www.oas.org

Organization of African Unity. The Charter. http://www.oau-oua.org

26. Who Should do the Work : Civil Society I—NGOs, Religious Community, Scientific Community, and Educational Institutions

Questions

  • Should refugee agencies use armed force to secure camps? If so, should they call on organized military forces or private security services?
  • Are NGOs contributing to an overall decline in state power? Is this a cause for concern?
  • How can NGOs improve their effectiveness in conflict situations?
  • Because religion has a paradoxical dual nature of one of tolerance and forgiveness and a path of strife and divisiveness, in what ways do religious leaders exacerbate or quell tensions?
  • Conflicts in Northern Ireland and Israel have often been described as religious conflicts. Although these conflicts are comprised of many other tensions, why do you think the religion is considered the predominant cause of violence? How can religious leaders work to end this divisiveness when the difference is not more of a characteristic than an issue?
  • What is the role of the scientific community in mitigating deadly conflict? Why does nature of the scientific community, allow for a useful role in preventing conflict?
  • In what ways could educating women reduce violent conflict?

Readings
Appleby, Scott. The Ambivalence of the Sacred: Religion, Violence and Reconciliation. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, forthcoming.

Amnesty International. Statute of Amnesty International. http://www.amnesty.org

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 109-120.

de Cerreño, Allison L.C. and Alexander Keynan, eds. Scientific Cooperation, State Conflict: The Roles of Scientists in Mitigating International Discord. New York: New York Academy of Sciences, 1998.

Hamburg, David. Education for Conflict Resolution. New York, NY: Carnegie Corporation of New York, 1994.

Human Rights Watch. Annual Report 1998. http://www.hrw.org.

International Committee of the Red Cross. Annual Report 1996. http://www.icrc.org.

Luttwak, Edward. "Give War a Chance." Foreign Affairs. July/August, 1999, vol. 78, no. 4. pp. 36-44

Matthews, Jessica. "Power Shift." Foreign Affairs. January/February 1997, vol. 76, no. 1. pp. 50-66.

Médecins Sans Frontières. The Charter of Médecins Sans Frontières. http://www.msf.org

Minear, Larry and Thomas G. Weiss. Mercy Under Fire: War and the Global Humanitarian Community. Boulder: Westview, 1995.

Rubin, Barry. "Religion and International Affairs." in Johnston, Douglas and Cynthia Sampson, eds., Religion: The Missing Dimension of Statecraft. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1994. pp. 20-34.

Smillie, Ian. "NGOs and Development Assistance: A Change in Mind-Set?" Third World Quarterly September, 1997, vol. 18, no. 3. pp 563-577.

27. Who Should do the Work: Civil Society II—The Media, The Business Community, and The Public

Questions

  • The "CNN effect" refers to the power of TV news media to shape the foreign policy interests of its audience. What is the impact of the news media on the foreign policy agenda of your government?
  • How does the Internet have an impact on the coverage of conflict?
  • Media professionals assert that their essential informative role is best served through unbiased, nonpartisan reporting. In contrast, experts in conflict resolution contend that journalists play a third-party role in any conflict they are covering. What is your opinion?
  • If nuclear weapons scientists had special social responsibilities in the Cold War to address the implications of their work, do the media have a similar responsibility in the information age?
  • What advantage does the business community have in comparison to other actors, in its ability to prevent deadly conflict.
  • What role can transparency in business and anti-corruption efforts play in conflict prevention?
  • Do businesses have a responsibility to try to assist in the political as well as the economic development within the states in which they invest?
  • Can and should policymakers persuade the public to support conflict prevention?
  • Why is it harder to build public support for conflict prevention than for conflict resolution?
  • In light of the fact that intervention was undertaken by the United States in Bosnia (when public opinion was negative), Panama (When public opinion was virtually nonexistent), and in Iraq (when public opinion was positive) can public opinion be said to have any effect on policymakers’ decisions to intervene in a conflict?
  • Discuss the relevance of the idea that the American public is more willing to become engaged internationally than its leaders believe. Use information from specific conflicts to support your argument.
  • Analyze the following statement. Discuss whether it accurately portrays the views of most Americans: "If troops need to be sent somewhere in the world, we (the U.S.) should do it ourselves. Working with other countries takes too long and is ineffective."

Readings

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Washington, DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1997. pp. 121-125.

Gjelten, Tom. Professionalism in War Reporting. A Report to the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict. New York: Carnegie Corporation of New York, 1998.

Gowing, Nik. Media Coverage: Help or Hindrance? A Report to the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict. New York: Carnegie Corporation of New York, 1997.

Neumann, Johanna. Lights, Camera, War: Is Media Technology Driving International Politics? New Work: St. Martin’s Press, 1996.

Kull, Steven and Clay Ramsay. "U.S. Public Attitudes on Involvement in Somalia." Program on International Policy Attitudes. Center for the Study of Policy Attitudes and the Center for International and Security Studies. University of Maryland, October 26, 1993.

Kull, Steven. "What the Public Knows That Washington Doesn’t." Foreign Policy, Winter 1995-1996, no. 101. pp. 102-115.

Reilly, John E. ed. American Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy, 1999. Chicago, IL: The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, 1999.

Appendix I

Selected Topics

 

Topic 1: Children and War

Questions

  • What can international organizations do to protect children and reduce the special vulnerabilities of children during war, both during as well as after conflicts? To what extent can international treaties like the Convention on the Rights of the Child be made more effective in protecting children?
  • What are some of the immediate effects of conflict on children? What are some long-term effects? What kinds of post-conflict recovery programs and social reintegration programs might mitigate these effects?
  • Discuss how education can play both a preventive as well as rehabilitative role for children in conflict-stricken regions. Can other domestic institutions play similar roles?

Readings
Machel, Graça. Impact of Armed Conflict on Children. New York: UN Department of Public Information, 1996.

United Nations. "Protection of Children Affected by Armed Conflict." Report by Olara Otunnu, Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict. United Nations General Assembly. A/53/482, October 12, 1998.

Topic 2: Internally Displaced People (IDPs)

Questions

  • How do the issues associated with IDPs differ from those issues raised by traditional refugee situations?
  • What special approaches do IDPs require and how can outside agencies work better with host governments to ensure IDP needs are met?

Readings
Deng, Francis M., Sadikiel Kimaro, Terrence Lyons, Donald Rothchild and I. William Zartman. "Normative Framework for Sovereignty." in Sovereignty as Responsibility: Conflict Management in Africa. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1996. pp. 1-33.

Deng, Francis. Protecting the Dispossessed: A Challenge for the International Community. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1993.

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. 1998 Global Report. http://www.unhcr.ch

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The State of the World’s Refugees 1997-98: A Humanitarian Agenda. New York: Oxford University Press, 1997.

Topic 3: Enhancing Women’s Roles in Preventing Violence and Rebuilding Peace

Questions

  • In what ways could educating women reduce violent conflict?
  • What steps can the international community take to help women in traditional, but war-torn societies?
  • What tools do women in traditional societies have for fostering a culture of prevention?
  • How should the international community work with women in traditional societies in post-conflict zones?

Readings
Green, Rosario. "Preventive Diplomacy: Women and Men in Partnership for Healthier Society." in Cahill, Kevin M. ed. Preventive Diplomacy: Stopping Wars Before They Start. New York: Basic Books, 1996. pp. 87-99.

The World Bank. Priorities and Strategies for Education. A World Bank Review. Washington, D.C.: International bank for Reconstruction and Development. pp. 19-31.

Appendix II

Additional Readings and Bibliography

Post-Cold War Conflict in International Affairs
Brown, Michael E. "The Causes and Regional Dimensions of Internal Conflict." In Brown, Michael E. (ed). The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Center for Science and International Affairs, 1996. pp. 571-602.

Commission on Global Governance. Our Global Neighborhood. (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1995.)

Doyle, Michael and G. John Ikenberry, eds.. New Thinking in International Relations Theory. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1997.

Freedman, Lawrence. "International Security: Changing Targets." Foreign Policy. Spring 1998, no. 110. pp. 48-63.

Van Evera, Stephen, and Daniel Byman, "Contemporary Deadly Conflict: Causes and Prospects" Security Studies, Spring 1998. pp. 1-50.

Vasquez, John A. Classics of International Relations. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1986.

Walt, Stephen M. "One World, Many Theories." Foreign Policy. Spring 1998, no. 110. pp. 29-46.

Waltz, Kenneth N. Man, the State and War: A Theoretical Analysis. New York: Columbia University Press, 1959.

Ethnic Conflict
Brown, Michael E, editor. Ethnic Conflict and International Security. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993.

Brown, Michael E. and Šumit Ganguly, editors. Government Policies and Ethnic Relations in Asia and the Pacific. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1997.

Gurr, Ted Robert, and Barbara Harff. Ethnic Conflict and World Politics. Boulder, CO: Westview, 1994.

Gurr, Ted Robert. Minorities At Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace, 1993.

Ndikumana, Leonce. "Institutional Failure and Ethnic Conflict in Burundi." African Studies Review. April 1998, vol. 41, no.1. pages 29-47.

Posen, Barry. "The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict." Survival. Spring, 1993, vol. 35, no. 1. pp 27-47.

Sadowski, Yahya. "Ethnic Conflict." Foreign Policy. Summer 1998, no. 111. pp. 12-23.

Riggs, Fred W. "The Modernity of Ethnic Identity and Conflict." International Political Science Review. July 1998. pp. 269-288.

The Clash of Civilizations Debate
Hassner, Pierre. "Morally Objectionable, Politically Dangerous." in The National Interest. Washington, D.C. Winter 1996/97. pp. 63-69. (Critical review of Huntington’s 1996 book below.)

Huntington, Samuel P. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996.

Huntington, Samuel P. "If Not Civilizations, What?" Paradigms of the Post-Cold War World. Foreign Affairs. November/December, 1993, vol. 72, no. 5. pp. 186-194.

Walt, Stephen M. "Building Up New Bogeymen." Foreign Policy. Spring, 1997, no. 106. pp. 177-189.

The Environment
Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. and Valerie Percival. Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflicts: Briefing Book. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1996.

Homer-Dixon, Thomas F., Jeffrey H. Boutwell and George W. Rathjens. "Environmental Change and Violent Conflict" Scientific American. February 1993, pp. 38-45.

Preventive Diplomacy
Cahill, Kevin M. ed. Preventive Diplomacy: Stopping Wars Before They Start. New York: Basic Books, 1996.

Chayes, Abram and Antonia Handler Chayes. eds. Preventing Conflict in the Post-Communist World. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1996.

Sanctions and Inducements
Baldwin, David A. Economic Statecraft. (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985.)

Cortright, David, and George Lopez, eds. Economic Sanctions: Panacea or Peacebuilding in a Post-Cold War World?. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1995.

The CQ Researcher. "Economic Sanctions: Can they replace combat in the post-Cold War era?" October 28, 1998.

Use of Force
Henkin, Louis. "Use of Force: Law and US Policy." Right v. Might: International Law and the Use of Force. 2nd Edition. Council on Foreign Relations. New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1991. Pages 37-69.

Loescher, Gil and Alan Dowty. "Refugee Flows as Grounds for International Action." in Brown, Michael E, Owen R. Coté, Jr., Sean M. Lynn-Jones and Steven E. Miller, eds. Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1996-97. pp. 305-333.

Shearer, David. "Outsourcing War." Foreign Policy. Fall 1998, no. 112. pp. 68-81.

Who Should Do the Work: Civil Society
Johnston, Douglas. "Looking Ahead Toward a New Paradigm." in Johnston, Douglas and Cynthia Sampson, eds., Religion: The Missing Dimension of Statecraft. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1994. pp. 316-337.

Slaughter, Anne-Marie. "The Real New World Order." Foreign Affairs. September/October, 1997, vol. 76, no. 5. pp. 183-197.

Tirman, John. "Forces of Civility: The NGO Revolution and the Search for Peace." Boston Review. December/January 1998-99, vol. 23.