From the above review of developments in the northern Caucasus, it is clear that very often the conflicts we see are not ethnic conflicts proper, but most often are ethnically disguised economic conflicts, triggered by the ongoing social and economic uncertainty, redistribution of property, struggle for key positions, etc. On the other hand, it is clear that in a region rife with ethnic friction, only two conflicts have led to bloodshed: the eviction of the Ingushes from North Ossetia and the Chechen War. It is obvious, then, that there are some mechanisms at work that either prevent or stifle ethnic strife.
The first, paradoxically, is that the continuity of power in the hands of former Communist Party functionaries helps to maintain social order. President Jarimov in Agydea, for example, was elected not as an Adygean leader, but as a former top personality of the local party leadership with sufficient experience, connections and conservative attitudes. Conflicts arise where former leaders are too weak to maintain power. Secondly, voluntary organizations may play an important role. Despite the disorder in Chechnya, there was a Council for Inter-Ethnic Reconciliation which managed to minimize the number of local conflicts. Islamic Sufi orders have also played a very positive role in Chechnya and Dagestan. Beyond this, the reconciling role of traditional village elders is also quite important. These mechanisms helped to prevent intensification of the Balkar-Kabardin conflict and hindered the mass participation of Ingushes on the Chechen side in the Chechnya War. Similarly, elderly Azeri women, acting in a traditional role, halted a crowd of Azeri youngsters when they tried to storm Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, after the February 1988 declaration of secession. Unfortunately, their efforts were annulled by the inflammatory rhetoric of the Azairbaidjan media. On the other hand, the existence of a large percentage of ethnically mixed marriages does not seem to help in conflict prevention. The percentage of such marriages was very high in Abkhazia and especially in Ossetia, but members of these families were regarded with mistrust by both sides.
Overall, one may assume that these mechanisms will be most effective in more traditionally oriented societies and economies. Unfortunately, in many societies in the northern Caucasus today, a large number of young men are growing up without exposure to or respect for traditional values. As such, there is a danger that new conflict is growing in the region. If there is to be any chance of avoiding this, it must be through economic development. The economic future of these areas lies not in industry or agriculture, but in reviving the tourist trade. The Caucasus region has a pleasant climate rich in natural beauty, plenty of historical relics, exotic customs, ancient architecture, etc – everything needed for a successful tourist industry. What it lacks is social stability. Tourism requires security, suppression of crime and terrorism, a decent and effective police force, and so on. Many Caucasians equate service jobs with servility, and are unwilling to work in the tourist trade. Equally, many ethnic Russians are reluctant to work for non-Russian bosses. Tourism is likely to be the future for the region, but for this industry to flourish, there must be significant changes in both social interaction and national mentalities.
Part Three | Notes and References