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After Egypt’s Parliamentary Elections, Resignation–and Low Expectations

Marina Ottaway

After the final runoffs in parliamentary elections this week, Egyptians seem to be settling in for an indefinite waiting period, with no particular expectations of progress. There is a strong sense here that people fear that change would make a difficult status quo even worse.

CAIRO—After the final runoffs in parliamentary elections this week, Egyptians seem to be settling in for an indefinite waiting period, with no particular expectations of progress. There is a strong sense here that people fear that change would make a difficult status quo even worse.

The parliamentary elections were supposed to complete Egypt’s transition to normality after four years of chaotic rule since the fall of Hosni Mubarak in early 2011. But turnout was only around 25%. The results represent a victory of sorts for President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, who is now working with a parliament dominated by independents who are probably more interested in patronage for themselves and their constituencies than in getting on the wrong side of the president. To the extent that there will be an opposition, it is likely to be represented by businessmen in the Free Egyptians Party founded by billionaire Naguib Sawiris. They may disagree with Mr. Sisi on specific economic policies, but they are unlikely to lead a direct attack on the regime. Mr. Sisi’s strongest supporters in parliament have argued that the constitution has given parliament too much power and needs to be amended to strengthen the president–a possibly unprecedented instance of elected parliamentarians demanding a lesser role in governing.

Meanwhile, Mr. Sisi’s popularity has started eroding. Most Egyptians are still thankful that he ended the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood when he gained control of the presidency in a military coup in the summer of 2013, but more than two years later he has yet to deliver tangible improvements. For most Egyptians, life has become harder under the Sisi regime, with food prices rising sharply and the number of jobs dwindling. The bombing of a Russian passenger airliner over Sinai on Oct. 31 dealt a potentially fatal blow to Egypt’s struggling tourism industry.

Mr. Sisi’s speeches emphasize economic revival, but most reforms remain mired in discussion, far from implementation. He has presented a vision of economic revival stimulated by massive projects, including a million housing units, a new capital city built in the desert, and an industrial and commercial zone along the Suez Canal to make Egypt competitive with Dubai. The only project implemented so far, the broadening of a section of the Suez Canal, is aimed at reducing transit and waiting times. But traffic through the canal has declined the past several months with the global economy, and that slump itself has reduced waiting times. Egypt is more dependent than ever on assistance from the oil-producing Gulf countries. But low oil prices are stressing those economies as well. Few worry that the palpable economic malaise will lead to a new uprising, but that’s because Egyptians have come to fear instability.

Politics as a battle of conflicting visions appears dead for the time being, with political space for debate closed by a regime that prizes stability and uses the police and the judiciary to enforce its will. The few political battles still being waged focus on specific issues that do not directly challenge the government. The deaths in detention of several activists jailed by police have led to outcries on social media about police brutality and torture, and some mainstream media outlets have expressed concern. The official responses so far–attributing the incidents to individual transgressions and transferring a few officers to different police stations without punishment–do not give much hope for change.

Egyptians appear disgruntled with the present and uncertain about the future, but many are also convinced that this is as good as it gets—and that alternatives could plunge the country back into chaos.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author.

This article was originally published on The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire.

About the Author

Marina Ottaway

Marina Ottaway

Middle East Fellow;
Former Senior Research Associate and Head of the Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Middle East Program

The Wilson Center’s Middle East Program serves as a crucial resource for the policymaking community and beyond, providing analyses and research that helps inform US foreign policymaking, stimulates public debate, and expands knowledge about issues in the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.  Read more