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Colombia's war with FARC and why it might finally end, explained

Cindy Arnson

Latin American Program Director Cynthia Arnson is quoted on the peace talks between the Colombia government and the FARC.

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Cynthia Arnson, the Director of the Latin America Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, told me that the FARC has been lobbying for a bilateral ceasefire for a long time. The government has refused to agree, however, because the FARC used the ceasefire during the late 1990s peace talks to build up its strength.

Arnson sees today's agreement as a way for the FARC to "up the ante" on its ceasefire demands, but does not expect the strategy to be successful. "It would be very, very difficult to impose a bilateral ceasefire," she told me. "I don't see the Colombian government having the political room, either with the Colombian public or with the Colombian military, to implement a cease fire until it is clear that they are on the verge of signing the final agreement."

Today's unilateral ceasefire is also unlikely to resolve the biggest remaining point of contention in the peace talks: whether FARC combatants will face criminal punishment after they put down their guns and demobilize.

"The issue of impunity for the FARC is the most important, and most difficult in the peace talks," Arnson noted. "The FARC is opposed to the idea that its commanders would lay down weapons and then go to jail. But at the same time, the military says that there are members of the armed forces who are in jail for human rights abuses, and so it has to be the case that the FARC will also pay with jail time."

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About the Author

Cindy Arnson

Cynthia J. Arnson

Distinguished Fellow, Latin America Program
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Latin America Program

The Wilson Center’s prestigious Latin America Program provides non-partisan expertise to a broad community of decision makers in the United States and Latin America on critical policy issues facing the Hemisphere. The Program provides insightful and actionable research for policymakers, private sector leaders, journalists, and public intellectuals in the United States and Latin America. To bridge the gap between scholarship and policy action, it fosters new inquiry, sponsors high-level public and private meetings among multiple stakeholders, and explores policy options to improve outcomes for citizens throughout the Americas. Drawing on the Wilson Center’s strength as the nation’s key non-partisan policy forum, the Program serves as a trusted source of analysis and a vital point of contact between the worlds of scholarship and action.  Read more