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Takeaways From the Russian Jet Downed Over Egypt

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"A rethinking of U.S. policy in Syria may yet come. Right now, the downing of this Russian jet feels less like a transformative event and more like another twist in the long war against jihadi terrorism–and a reminder that, 14 years after 9/11, terrorist threats to commercial aviation remain real and terrifying," writes Aaron David Miller.

 There are still more questions than answers about the downing of a Russian aircraft over Egypt Oct. 31. But setting aside the whodunit puzzle, let’s assume, as Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev suggested Monday, that a terrorist bomb was at fault. Will this change the nature of the war in Syria? Will it create a U.S.-Russian alliance against Islamic State? Will it facilitate a political settlement in Syria or affect Bashar al-Assad’s departure? The implications of this incident will take time to understand, but preliminary conclusions include:

U.S. analysis of Islamic State may have been off. Most analysis has assumed that ISIS is focused on the ground, largely in Syria and Iraq: building its Caliphate, recruiting jihadis, and creating sustainable institutions. ISIS extremists have kidnapped and killed Americans, Europeans, Sunnis, Shiites, Christians, Yazidis, and other minorities in the region. ISIS has not appeared to actively look for ways to attack Western targets. If the Russian jet was downed by the ISIS affiliate in Sinai that has claimed responsibility, it demonstrates that the local group has grown in strength since pledging allegiance to ISIS a year ago. Egypt’s long-standing practice of ignoring the needs of Sinai’s population has created fertile ground for ISIS recruitment. And if Cairo continues to alienate the population in Sinai, efforts simply to crack down on terrorist cells will actually make it harder to root out the ISIS affiliate members.

The motivation for the attack might have been Vladimir Putin’s intervention in Syria—though Russian military action hasn’t been primarily directed at ISIS—or the goal might have been to embarrass Egypt, undermine its tourism industry and economy, and show that Egyptian security is no match for determined Islamists. Whatever the primary target, Islamic State’s credibility among global jihadis will grow.

Egypt’s long-standing practice of ignoring the needs of Sinai’s population has created fertile ground for ISIS recruitment.

Last week Russia conducted airstrikes in Raqqa–Islamic State’s capital in Syria–that killed 42 people, by one count, including 27 civilians. Moscow can be expected to escalate against ISIS targets. No matter how Mr. Putin tries to spin the attack, the downed jet shows that Russian actions in Syria carry serious risks. Will it force Mr. Putin to concentrate on ISIS instead of supporting the Assad regime? That’s not yet clear. The Assad regime has helped to energize ISIS by killing scores of thousands of Syrian Sunnis. Mr. Putin may argue that this incident demonstrates that ISIS, not Mr. Assad, is the major threat in Syria. Bashar Assad may be a murderer, this thinking holds, but he’s not killing Russians or Americans. It’s uncertain whether Mr. Putin will be more amenable to U.S. efforts to ease out Mr. Assad, though Russia appears prepared to coordinate with the FBI in investigating the bombing. But Mr. Putin is more likely to double down than be scared off from Syria. And that doesn’t necessarily mean close cooperation with the U.S.

Had the downed jet been a U.S. commercial aircraft, would the Obama administration have stopped at escalating its air campaign against Islamic State? Would it have ramped up its deployment of special forces to accelerate planning with local allies against ISIS in Raqqa, or deployed tens of thousands of U.S. forces with the aim of defeating Islamic State in Syria? A rethinking of U.S. policy in Syria may yet come. Right now, the downing of this Russian jet feels less like a transformative event and more like another twist in the long war against jihadi terrorism–and a reminder that, 14 years after 9/11, terrorist threats to commercial aviation remain real and terrifying.

The opinions expressed here are those solely of the author.

This article was originally published in the Washington Wire.

About the Author

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Aaron David Miller

Global Fellow
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Middle East Program

The Wilson Center’s Middle East Program serves as a crucial resource for the policymaking community and beyond, providing analyses and research that helps inform US foreign policymaking, stimulates public debate, and expands knowledge about issues in the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.  Read more