Saudi Arabia Expects:

• In Saudi eyes the Obama Administration had initiated a strong American tilt toward Iran in the midst of a bitter Saudi-Iranian competition for regional supremacy.
• The U.S. and Saudi Arabia will continue to share a number of critical security interests and are already working together closely to defeat Islamic State and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. 
   

Q: What is the greatest challenge facing the United States’ relationship with Saudi Arabia?

A: The greatest challenge is finding new meaning in the 70 year-old relationship badly eroded by constant questioning ever since 9/11 over whether the kingdom is more friend or foe of the United States.   The crisis in confidence has been made much worse because in Saudi eyes the Obama Administration had initiated a strong American tilt toward Iran in the midst of a bitter Saudi-Iranian competition for regional supremacy.  How President-elect Trump decides to deal with Iran will impact heavily on the future course of U.S.-Saudi relations.

Q: What will the next president need to do to improve relations?

A: At home, President Trump needs to prevail upon Congress to amend the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA) that has lifted the kingdom’s sovereign immunity to allow 9/11 families to sue the Saudi government and officials for their alleged support of the hijackers.  This unprecedented step against a putative ally has raised doubts throughout the Middle East about the value of being a partner of the United States, or of helping it to achieve its foreign policy goals in the region as Saudi Arabia has done for decades.  The problem can be fixed by empowering the president to suspend JASTA in the name of national security and the U.S. war on Islamic terrorism.

The next president should begin by articulating clearly what unites rather than divides the United Sates and Saudi Arabia.  The two countries will never find common accord on Saudi export of its ultraconservative brand of Islam or American export of democracy. But they still share a number of critical security interests. Both regard the Islamic State and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) as serious threats to their own security and that of their regional allies and are already working together  closely to defeat them . Even in the Yemen war where Washington does not share the Saudi zeal to crush Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, the two governments continue to combine their intelligence and military forces to quash AQAP there.

Q: What is the most pressing issue facing the new president in dealing with Saudi Arabia?

A: The most pressing issue is the future of U.S. policy toward Iran and especially the agreement limiting the Iranian nuclear program negotiated by the Obama administration last year. President Trump told a pro-Israeli lobby group in March that his number one priority in foreign policy if elected would be  to “dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.” If Trump scuttles the pact, Iran will very likely resume its march toward obtaining nuclear weapons. This in turn will force Trump to decide whether to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities.  This would doubtlessly provoke Iranian retaliation against U.S. interests and allies in the region, most notably Saudi Arabia, and trigger yet another Middle East war.

Saudi Arabia would welcome a U.S. confrontation with Iran, thereby hoping to gain a recommitment of U.S. security for the kingdom as well as American support for its struggle to roll back growing Iranian influence in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.  Trump should make clear that the United States is not abandoning Saudi Arabia, nor asking it to “share the neighborhood” with Iran as President Obama had so blithely proposed.  But the new president should also eschew warmongering, press Iran to respect every iota of the nuclear pact and back Saudi Arabia in its ongoing efforts to establish a military and political counterweight to Iran in the region.