NAFTA/USMCA | Wilson Center


Nine Million Reasons to Get a Trade Deal Done with Canada

As U.S. and Canadian officials resume trade negotiations in Washington, it is vital to realize that the United States gains massively from its economic relationship with Canada.

Ending the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and moving ahead with only a new U.S.-Mexico trade agreement, as the White House has threatened, would damage the U.S. and Canada. Compared to what is at stake for the United States, the remaining U.S.-Canada trade differences are small and resolvable.

NAFTA 2.0 End Game Briefer

From what we know so far, the prospective deal is not as good as we hoped, but it is not as bad as it could have been. 

Are we in the end game for NAFTA?

I would give it a more than 50/50 chance. To be in the end game, two conditions must be met: Canada has to be able to live with the proposals worked out by the U.S. and Mexico over the past five weeks and there must be enough benefits across all sectors of the agreement to provide a landing strip for settlement.

U.S.-Mexico Deal Means Very Little Without Canada

The “preliminary agreement in principle” between Mexico and the United States is an important step forward in the effort to agree on a modernized trade agreement in North America.

It is important to recognize, however, that the bilateral U.S.-Mexico agreement is not a good substitute for a trilateral agreement that brings in Canada, America’s largest trading partner.

Reaction from Mexico Institute Experts on U.S.-Mexico Trade Agreement

Christopher Wilson, Deputy Director, Mexico Institute