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Nuclear Weapons

Tlatelolco Tested

The Falklands/Malvinas War and Latin America's Nuclear Weapons Free Zone

Is No Nuclear Deal With Iran a Better Outcome for Obama?

I still think the odds favor a deal, soon, on the Iran nuclear issue. But as negotiations have continued, and in light of Iranian demands to eliminate the U.N. arms embargo, including restrictions on its ballistic missile technology, there are reasons that Barack Obama might now feel that no deal would better serve his interests. Consider the advantages if the president were to view time as an ally, not an adversary:

CANCELLED: The Iran Negotiations: Is this Really the End Game?

Iran and six major powers will keep negotiating past Tuesday's deadline for a long-term nuclear agreement. We will postpone this event on Wednesday, July 8 until a deal is announced.

Despite the uncertainties, the United States and Iran seem to be in the final stages of what promises to be a comprehensive accord on the nuclear issue. 

Can the U.S. Get a Good Iran Deal?

The negotiators on both sides of the Iran nuclear talks have come too far to let a deal slip away. There's simply too much apprehension and worry, particularly in Washington, about what happens if it does.

No one, especially President Barack Obama, wants to spend the next year-plus of his presidency consumed with the prospects of an accelerating Iranian nuclear program, a collapsing sanctions regime, and a possible Israeli military strike or an American one.

What If No Agreement Is Reached on Iran’s Nuclear Program?

President Barack Obama threatened Tuesday to walk away from nuclear negotiations if Iran doesn’t adhere to the principles it agreed to in April. Negotiators have formally extended talks to July 7 to give themselves additional time to conclude an agreement. I’m still betting on a deal in July. But what if there is no deal?

Let’s step back from the politics and the talking points.

The Iran Nuclear Deal: Pitfalls and Promises

Four experts on Iran, nuclear proliferation, and sanctions discussed the P5+1 deal and the potential impact of the deal going forward.

The War that Haunts Iran’s Negotiators

The historic nuclear diplomacy taking place in Vienna’s elegant Coburg Palace has roots in a gritty war between Iran and Iraq that ended more than a quarter of a century ago. Iran suffered more than a hundred and fifty thousand dead between 1980 and 1988. In Tehran, it’s called the Sacred Defense. In the final stages, U.S. aid to Iraq contributed to Iran’s decision to pursue nuclear capability—the very program that six world powers are now negotiating to contain.

No, the Iran Nuclear Deal Will Not Be Good for the U.S.

Iran will get too much.

Once Iran learned how to make a nuke, there wasn’t much chance for a really good and reassuring deal on the nuclear issue. The agreement being negotiated now may well be the least bad of the terrible options available to slow Iran’s nuclear program. But we should be clear-eyed about what else we may be getting from this deal: a richer and stronger Iran, one pushing for a Middle East more hostile to the U.S.–and one that will still retain the capacity to build nuclear weapons.

The Imagined Arsenal

The Imagined Arsenal

India's Nuclear Decision-Making, 1973-76

The relationship between the May 1974 “peaceful nuclear explosion” (PNE) and India’s later development of a nuclear weapons arsenal and delivery systems has been a subject of much debate. The spectrum of discussion ranges from scholars attributing a strategic vision to the entire early Indian atomic program, to those who argue that the test was inspired primarily by domestic and foreign policy considerations. Yet all discussion has been hampered by a lack of archival evidence.

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