Nuclear Weapons | Wilson Center

Nuclear Weapons

CANCELLED: The Iran Negotiations: Is this Really the End Game?

Iran and six major powers will keep negotiating past Tuesday's deadline for a long-term nuclear agreement. We will postpone this event on Wednesday, July 8 until a deal is announced.

Despite the uncertainties, the United States and Iran seem to be in the final stages of what promises to be a comprehensive accord on the nuclear issue. 

Can the U.S. Get a Good Iran Deal?

The negotiators on both sides of the Iran nuclear talks have come too far to let a deal slip away. There's simply too much apprehension and worry, particularly in Washington, about what happens if it does.

No one, especially President Barack Obama, wants to spend the next year-plus of his presidency consumed with the prospects of an accelerating Iranian nuclear program, a collapsing sanctions regime, and a possible Israeli military strike or an American one.

What If No Agreement Is Reached on Iran’s Nuclear Program?

President Barack Obama threatened Tuesday to walk away from nuclear negotiations if Iran doesn’t adhere to the principles it agreed to in April. Negotiators have formally extended talks to July 7 to give themselves additional time to conclude an agreement. I’m still betting on a deal in July. But what if there is no deal?

Let’s step back from the politics and the talking points.

The Iran Nuclear Deal: Pitfalls and Promises

Four experts on Iran, nuclear proliferation, and sanctions discussed the P5+1 deal and the potential impact of the deal going forward.

The War that Haunts Iran’s Negotiators

The historic nuclear diplomacy taking place in Vienna’s elegant Coburg Palace has roots in a gritty war between Iran and Iraq that ended more than a quarter of a century ago. Iran suffered more than a hundred and fifty thousand dead between 1980 and 1988. In Tehran, it’s called the Sacred Defense. In the final stages, U.S. aid to Iraq contributed to Iran’s decision to pursue nuclear capability—the very program that six world powers are now negotiating to contain.

No, the Iran Nuclear Deal Will Not Be Good for the U.S.

Iran will get too much.

Once Iran learned how to make a nuke, there wasn’t much chance for a really good and reassuring deal on the nuclear issue. The agreement being negotiated now may well be the least bad of the terrible options available to slow Iran’s nuclear program. But we should be clear-eyed about what else we may be getting from this deal: a richer and stronger Iran, one pushing for a Middle East more hostile to the U.S.–and one that will still retain the capacity to build nuclear weapons.

The Imagined Arsenal

The Imagined Arsenal

India's Nuclear Decision-Making, 1973-76

The relationship between the May 1974 “peaceful nuclear explosion” (PNE) and India’s later development of a nuclear weapons arsenal and delivery systems has been a subject of much debate. The spectrum of discussion ranges from scholars attributing a strategic vision to the entire early Indian atomic program, to those who argue that the test was inspired primarily by domestic and foreign policy considerations. Yet all discussion has been hampered by a lack of archival evidence.

Can a Nuclear Deal Help Iran’s Young Labor Force?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Iran is poised to reap a vast “demographic dividend” if the appropriate national and international policies are adopted, including a nuclear deal with the P5+1. It is about time for Iran to capitalize on its human capital by allowing its young and educated labor force to compete in the global market. Countries generally have only one chance to reap the demographic dividend as they go through the demographic transition. Iran cannot afford to miss it.

U.S. China Policy: Accommodate or Double Down?

Two recent reports have triggered a discussion surrounding the evolution of US policy toward China. The fundamental choice confronting policymakers is whether to respond to China’s rise by accommodating its ambitions or to challenge the People’s Republic by attempting to reassert or double down on American preeminence in the Asia-Pacific region. While the choices may not be mutually exclusive, neither are they completely compatible.

Middle East Realities That Challenge Obama’s Nuclear Deal With Iran

The emerging Iran deal that the Obama administration contends is comprehensive and definitive contains so many uncertainties, including those regarding Iran’s future nuclear weapons aspirations, that it might well turn out to be an extended interim accord.

This underscores an issue with a few things Secretary of State John Kerry recently said while defending the Iran deal–remarks that I presume he’d like to take back:

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