Democratic Transition Publications

Beginning the Demographic Transition: Very Young and Youthful Age Structures

Jul 07, 2011
From 1970-2000, "only 13 percent of countries with a very young age structure had fully democratic governments, compared with 83 percent of countries with a mature age structure," says Elizabeth Leahy, who compares age structure to conflict in Nigeria, Ethiopia, Iran, and Pakistan.

270. Bulgaria's Delayed Transition: Problems but Progress

Jul 07, 2011
December 2002- Bulgaria's post-1989 transition to a multi-party democracy and market economy, both functioning under the rule of law, has obviously been slow if judged by Hungary's exemplary standard. Ten governments and five parliaments in 12 years have hampered the political pursuit of sustained policies. The shock of a collapsing Soviet trade regime hit Bulgarian exports – one half of which had gone to the USSR – particularly hard. Legal foreign trade suffered and illegal activity mushroomed with Western sanctions against Serbia and Greece's embargo against what it still calls the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. But that was the 1990s, and now in the new century, there are enough signs of progress to hope that impending NATO membership will indeed be followed before the end of the decade by EU membership.

51. Romania: One Year Into the Constantinescu Presidency

Jul 07, 2011
These four papers attempt to summarize and understand the successes and failures of the Constantinescu presidency one year into it. The authors analyze changes to Romania's media, inconsistencies in the country's parliament, alterations in U.S.-Romanian relations, as well as the state of the Romanian economy one year after the 1996 democratic election.

El Salvador's Democratic Transition Ten Years After the Peace Accord

Jul 07, 2011
This report results from a 2002 conference held to evaluate the ten years following the accord between El Salvador's government and guerrillas of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front. The conference aimed to assess the nature of the democratic transition and related socio-economic developments in the post-war era.

66. The Third Yugoslavia, 1992 - 2001

Jul 07, 2011
The Milosevic regime was a classic example of what has been called a “democradura,” i.e., a system which combined some of the mechanisms of democracy (with the result that Milosevic’s Socialists were, at one point, forced to enter into a coalition with Seselj’s Radicals, in order to form a government) with many overtly authoritarian features (among which one might mention the constriction of press freedom, the use of the police against the political opposition, and systematic violations of human rights). If, as the author has argued elsewhere, political legitimacy hinges on the observance of routinized, legal, and accepted procedures for political succession, then much depends on the origins of the given regime. Accordingly, to understand the nature of the Milosevic regime and the roots of its crisis, one must return to its origins in 1987.

Half a Chance: Youth Bulges and Transitions to Liberal Democracy

Jul 07, 2011
Using age-structure data, Richard Cincotta assesses the fragility of existing liberal democracies and forecasts when new ones will emerge.

330. Serbia's Elections of January 21, 2007: More Pluses than Minuses

Jul 07, 2011
February 2007 - These comments draw on my visit to Belgrade this past January, initially arranged as a research trip for my ongoing and optimistically titled book project with Lenard Cohen, "Embracing Democracy in the Western Balkans: From Post-Conflict Struggles to European Integration." The visit's overlapping with January 21 meant that the elections dominated most of my conversations and also the current press that I collected. I met with a variety of scholars, the editors of the daily Danas, for which I provided an interview, Slobodan G. Markovic of the Institute for European Studies, Srdjan Gligorijevic of the International and Security Affairs Center, and Sonja Licht, now President of the Belgrade Fund for Political Excellence. Supplementing their varied impressions for this balance sheet are articles from the daily papers Danas and Politika, and the weekly magazines Vreme and NIN.

53. Do Legacies Matter? Patterns of Postcommunist Transitions in Eastern Europe

Jul 07, 2011
In this paper, the author examines the initial outcomes of post-1989 transformations in countries outside the former Soviet Union. He identifies the patterns of transformation emerging in the region and proposes some tentative ideas that help to account for disparities in initial outcomes of these transformations.

A New Dawn for Kenya: A Report on the Kenyan Referendum

Jul 07, 2011
Muthee is a trained Social Scientist with eight years experience in research, policy analysis, project planning and management amounting from various assignments in different work areas. Her key areas of interest are: poverty, health, governance, organisational management, human rights and gender.

Pages