Southeast Europe Publications
October 2002- When Turkish voters go to the polls on November 3, they will do so to register a deep sense of despair over the country's economic mismanagement and their growing anger toward mainstream parties. The majority of the voters will be casting a "protest vote," in every sense of the word, and the likely outcome will be a victory for the Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party (AKP).
November 2007 - (Xenophon Paper No. 4, written for the International Centre for Black Sea Studies and posted with the permission of the author.) The wider Black Sea area is rapidly becoming a focal point of interest for a number of extra-regional actors that can also be considered, in view of their active involvement, to be stakeholders. As Ian Lesser, the author of this new Xenophon Paper suggests, the Black Sea is strategically significant because it is an important part of the European security environment, it is a political and logisticalhub for power projection to crisis-prone areas beyond the Black Sea basin and it is important in its own right because of its impressive development potential but also because it harbors many flashpoints for regional conflict.
September 2000- The following was excerpted from remarks made by the minister at a Policy Forum in Washington organized by the Western Policy Center.
April 2002 - Last year's hard-won Macedonian peace agreement is in danger of being sabotaged by a small, shadowy—but probably growing—extremist group known as the Albanian National Army (ANA), which is beginning a campaign aimed at returning the region to ethnic conflict.
This study focuses on the post-communist Balkans and juxtaposes the positions of what its authors call the “recidivist” and “transitionist” schools of thought. The thesis of the recidivists is that war is a deep characteristic of the Balkans and is destined to recur in the future. The transitionists, on the contrary, posit that war is a product of economic, political and social underdevelopment rather than being specific to particular geographic regions or cultures. Siding with the cautiously optimistic approach of the transitionists, the authors of this study employ a variation of Bruce Russett’s Kantian peace theory and attempt to apply it to the post-communist Balkans.
November 16, 1999- The following are excerpts of speeches delivered by President Clinton in Istanbul and Athens during his 10-day November trip to southeastern Europe.
Spring 2005- (Published in Vol. 4, No. 1 issue of Turkish Policy Quarterly.) Historically, US-Turkish relations have been deeply affected by events in Cyprus ever since the 1963 crisis, and especially the 1974 coup and invasion. Since the Greek Cypriot rejection of the Annan Plan in April 2004,decades of vigorous diplomatic efforts by the US State Department to resolve the Cyprus problem have ground to a near halt. Turkish and Turkish Cypriot support for the Annan Plan, which was strongly endorsed by the European Union, have also diminished the impact of Cyprus developments on US-Turkish relations. Separately, however, the relationship is in a state of severe disrepair in the wake of Turkish misconceptions about US aims and actions in Iraq and the broader Middle East, as well as the profound mutual mistrust that has only hardened since the March 1, 2003 Turkish parliamentary vote rejecting a Turkish role in the Iraq invasion. At this point, even a historic and welcome solution to the Cyprus problem will have little positive influence on US-Turkey relations, which may have entered a transformational phase with uncertain outcomes.
Nov./Dec. 2001 - Historically, when a major international conflict breaks out in the world, the terms of every other conflict--including lesser, more localized disputes that are important to the people involved, but obscure to most outsiders--instantly change. America's battle against terrorism certainly ranks as a major international conflict, and every other war zone looks different as a result.
August 2004 - On March 29, 2004, Bulgaria and Romania joined NATO. The Black Sea is now ringed, on one side, by alliance countries and, on the other, by former Soviet states with varying degrees of instability and security problems. As the trans-Atlantic alliance spreads to the east toward the greater Black Sea region, it encounters new neighbors, where both asymmetrical and conventional threats that were previously not of primary concern now loom large. However, at the June 2004 NATO summit in Istanbul, held at the very entrance to the region, no coherent strategy was outlined for the alliance's new neighborhood and only scant mention was made of its immense strategic importance.