Protecting the Planet: Scholar Studies Climate Science, History, Policy

Fifty years ago, there were no earth-orbiting satellites to be disrupted by solar activity. Now, solar flares place the vast infrastructure of earth-orbiting hardware at risk; as a result, the new field of space weather has emerged. "The sun hasn't changed. Technology has," said James Fleming, a professor of science, technology, and society at Colby College and currently a Wilson Center public policy scholar.

Twentieth-century advances—aviation, computing, and satellites—revolutionized our understanding of weather and climate science, he told Centerpoint, and have triggered major shifts in public perceptions and expectations. "Since the invention of radio in 1895, we have become immersed in a previously unknown and expanding electromagnetic environment, largely of our own making," he said. "And we've become increasingly isolated from nature, turning away from the sky and moving our activities indoors where the climate can be controlled better."

Global climate change is an international, intergenerational, and interdisciplinary topic. Yet there are few historians of the topic. Two centuries ago, Americans studying climate change linked it to issues of settling the continent, clearing the forests, and draining the marshes. Even a century ago, few climatologists worried about the effects of increased coal burning.

In 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar, "the most important scientist you probably never heard of," discovered that global warming could be linked to the burning of fossil fuels, known as The Callendar Effect, also the title of Fleming's forthcoming book.

By 1971, Fleming said, many scientists had become concerned about the increased burning of fossil fuels, though they debated its atmospheric effects. Global climate change reached international policy circles only after 1988.

Fleming's research aims to bring the history of science and technology to bear on contemporary ethical choices and policy decisions. At the Wilson Center, he is writing a book on the history of weather and climate control, particularly natural disaster risk reduction and technical responses for large-scale environmental problems. He has written a chapter about this in his co-edited volume to be released this fall, Intimate Universality: Local and Global Themes in the History of Weather and Climate.

Many scientists worry about a dangerous "tipping point" of no return for the climate system beyond which civilization as we know it may not be supportable. Others wonder when we might reach a true behavioral tipping point when humanity decides to live within sustainable means using only clean-energy sources. But can changes in collective lifestyle avert an unprecedented and potentially catastrophic disaster or must we settle for adaptation?

Fleming worries about another more ominous tipping point that might lead to attempts at climate control. Such modification might involve shooting sulfates into the atmosphere to cool it, which would turn the blue sky milky white, or fertilizing the oceans with iron to stimulate plankton growth, which would turn the blue ocean soupy green. Maybe, with responsible planning, he said, we won't arrive at that point.

Technology and attitude are powerful forces shaping what's feasible in both science and policy, Fleming said, and those at every level—from individuals to institutions—can help protect the planet.