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Is Russia planning a winter offensive?

Michael Kofman

"The invasion of Ukraine and confrontation with the West have whipped up nationalist sentiment, but Russia has run out of foreign policy victories to feed to the fire," writes Michael Kofman.

The buildup of separatist forces in Donetsk, Ukraine, and Moscow's patently confrontational tone are raising the specter of another offensive in eastern Ukraine before winter grips the region. On Wednesday, NATO warned that "columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops" had been spotted entering Ukraine.

Is this crisis about to flare up again, just two months after Russia withdrew its forces?

Given the strategic costs, it might seem unlikely that Russia would reignite this war, especially with winter looming. Yet both the opportunity and the motivation appear to be there in Moscow.

The invasion of Ukraine and confrontation with the West have whipped up nationalist sentiment, but Russia has run out of foreign policy victories to feed to the fire. That might explain why Moscow is aggravating NATO with airspace violations and playing alleged underwater games with Sweden, moves that appear aimed at keeping the Russian public in a confrontational mood.

The problem for Russian President Vladimir Putin is that none of this is likely to sustain his astronomical approval ratings or keep economic woes from chipping away at public support for the Ukrainian adventure.

Another motivating factor could be that pro-Russian separatists simply do not control enough of the Donbass, the populous region that includes Donetsk, to have made this conflict worthwhile for Russia. The territory controlled by them looks awfully small in comparison to lofty talk of re-establishing a grand Novorossiya, and the ceasefire line of control left many separatist home cities under Ukrainian control, so the separatists seem keen to fight for the rest...

Read the full article on CNN.com.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author. 

About the Author

Michael Kofman

Michael Kofman

Former Global Fellow;
Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Kennan Institute

The Kennan Institute is the premier US center for advanced research on Russia and Eurasia and the oldest and largest regional program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The Kennan Institute is committed to improving American understanding of Russia, Ukraine, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the surrounding region though research and exchange.  Read more