Political Parties in Burundi - Between Crisis and Opportunity

On August 20, 2007, the Africa Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (WWICS) sponsored an event entitled "Political Parties in Burundi - Between Crisis and Opportunity". The purpose of the event was to present Andreas Hipple's doctoral research project which attempts to understand how internal party crises and rival factions affect the transformation of rebel groups into political parties. While Hipple looks at three different case studies in his project (East Timor, Burundi, northeast India), his presentation at the Wilson center focused on looking at the subject through the lens of his on-going research on Burundian politics. Hipple, a 2007 Africanist Doctoral Fellow at the WWICS, is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of International Development, School of Advanced International Studies, at Johns Hopkins University. The moderator for the event was Howard Wolpe, Director of the Africa Program at the WWICS.

Hipple's dissertation contributes to a rapidly growing area of research: the transformation of rebel movements into political parties. The interest in this subject derives from a relatively new situation. Whereas the formal democratization process has been at the center of virtually every negotiated agreement and conflict since the end of the Cold War, the quality and durability of the democratic political settlement depends largely on the establishment of viable political parties willing and able to compete in the electoral arena. Much of Hipple's research is focused on understanding how internal party crises in rival factions affect the transformation of rebel groups into political parties both positively and negatively. He argued that it is by understanding the way ex-rebel political parties deal with crises of leadership, of policy or as a consequence of external pressures, that we can best understand the institutional weaknesses that determine the extent to which they become effective political organizations committed to peaceful democratic politics.

Hipple described his research into existing literature on this topic and noted that despite the fact that many people are looking at it, there remains fertile ground for more research. Indeed, while factions within political parties have been studied for years, this work has been primarily been in the context of advanced industrialized countries. He stated that this area of research should not be overlooked as it is crucial to post-conflict political development.

He elaborated on certain key insights from the existing literature while noting that not all of them fit the situation in Burundi. First, factionalism can be responsible for corruption within a party. This factor does apply to the situation in Burundi in that corruption is a big issue in Burundian politics and in many ex-rebel political parties. Second, factions can cause parties and party systems to fragment and this can then threaten nascent democracies. Third, factionalism is especially common in dominant parties and it can engender needed competition in these dominant parties. Finally, electoral laws can be a major source of factionalism. The way the rules of the game are structured can influence whether or not political parties end up staying cohesive and united.

Hipple proceeded to discuss his own research which is driven by the hypothesis that political parties emerging from rebel groups invariably suffer internal crises and the way in which they resolve these crises helps determine their ultimate commitment to peaceful political competition in a new democratic order. His research is in turn structured around various types of crises that affect political parties and their development. His list of potential crises includes leadership succession; electoral loss or the prospect therefore; resource constraints; challenges posed by spoiler groups outside the party; internal pressures which can include spillover crises from other countries; the challenges of governance; and a loss of party cohesion.

These categories of crisis were then applied to the situation in Burundi:

- In regards to electoral loss or the prospect thereof, we see that in Burundi, the opposition has grown in its level of unification. The opposition parties have better communication than they have had at any time since 2005. This may in turn force the largest rebel faction (now the ruling party in Burundi), the Conseil National de Défense de la Démocratie-Forces de Défense de la Démocratie (CNDD-FDD) to change its collective incentive strategy in order to broaden its mass appeal. The prospect of a strengthening opposition can, in an optimistic scenario, lead the CNDD-FDD to strengthen its internal party systems in such a way that they pursue more an open political agenda development policy. On the negative side, the CNDD-FDD leaders may not like their chances to win electorally and as such, they could seek non-democratic avenues to remedy this loss of power.
- In terms of resource constraints, Hipple said he would not be able to explore this factor until he does his field research in Burundi.
- Challenges posed by spoiler groups outside of the party are clearly an issue in Burundi and clearly affect the CNDD-FDD. Indeed, the departure of the Forces Nationals de Liberation (FNL) leaders from the negotiation table in July may potentially be used by the ruling party as a reason to tighten their control over parts of the country.
- In regards to international pressures, the most significant pressure on the Burundi government is the potential return of refugees from Tanzania.
- In terms of challenges of governance, the major factor in Burundi is the salience of corruption in every aspect of the government.
- In terms of the internal crises, the more important one is the loss of party cohesion. Indeed, inter-party fighting could paralyze the party vis-à-vis its responsibilities in government. Furthermore, inter-party squabbles can exacerbate tensions between the party and other actors such as the military and civil society. Finally, inter-party fighting can harm the long-term prospects for the pursuit of important reforms.

Hipple ended his presentation by stating that the underlying question that remains is under what circumstances are crises, be they caused by internal splits between rival factions or a product of external stimuli, likely to lead to a strengthening of political parties and peaceful political engagement, and when are they likely to do the opposite.

During the question and answer portion of the event, Hipple was asked if there were more opportunities or crises in Burundi. Hipple responded by saying that at the moment, Burundian politics were certainly in crisis to some extent. Indeed, the mere inability of the national assembly to function is without a doubt a crisis. He noted that the way in which this crisis is resolved could create opportunities to improve political interactions and longer term development. Nonetheless, there are clearly risks if the CNDD-FDD and the other political parties fail to present a cohesive front. He concluded by stating that without a doubt, there are certain crises in Burundi but crises have both risks and opportunities, and only time could tell what positives would come from the current troubled situation.

Drafted by Aliya Jalloh, Intern and Roseline Tekeu, Program Assistant, Africa Program.