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Putin's Russia Today: Sources of Stability and Emerging Challenges

Andrei Kortunov, President, ISE Center (Information. Scholarship. Education.), Moscow, and President, New Eurasia Foundation, Moscow

Date & Time

Monday
Nov. 7, 2005
10:00am – 11:00am ET

Overview

At a recent Kennan Institute talk, Andrei Kortunov, President, ISE Center (Information. Scholarship. Education.), Moscow, and President, New Eurasia Foundation, Moscow, argued that the success of Vladimir Putin as President of Russia is something of a paradox. According to prevailing political theories, Kortunov said, Putin's system of governance should not be effective in modern-day Russia, and yet Russia has experienced a degree of prosperity and stability during his tenure. Kortunov contended that Putin's successes are destined to be short-lived. During Putin's second term, he noted, Russia has been significantly less stable than during his first term. For example, administrative reforms have paralyzed the government, Russia's largest oil company was destroyed, reforms in social services led to street protests, and instability has proliferated in the north Caucasus.

Kortunov argued that Putin has created a regime in Russia that is very similar to regimes in Latin America and parts of Asia in the mid-twentieth century. Russia has the institutional features of a mature democracy, but the political environment is uncompetitive. The leadership is divided between technocrats and military and security officers, and foreign policy is characterized by a disconnect between pro-integration rhetoric and isolationist practice. Kortunov noted that this type of regime has produced economic prosperity and eventual democratization in the past. However, he warned that these successes have mostly occurred in small, newly industrializing countries. Putin's system is unlikely to give Russia success in the post-industrial age.

Putin's regime has been working better than could have been expected for Russia, according to Kortunov. He cited several reasons for Putin's apparent success: high world oil prices; the lingering results of the 1998 crisis, especially the comparatively low cost of domestic goods and labor; positive relations with the West; and the discrediting of liberal political parties during the Yeltsin era. Kortunov argued that all of these factors are diminishing in importance. Oil prices are likely to drop, and even if they remain high, this will decrease incentives for economic reform and raise the value of the ruble, thus hurting domestic industry. The costs of domestic production in Russia continue to rise. Russia's good relations with the West have not resulted in actual integration into international institutions, and domestic political opposition to Putin appears to be increasing.

The Putin administration is responding to these challenges by promoting centralization and increasing its control of society, Kortunov contended. However, state institutions are weak and often in conflict with each other, making this growing authoritarianism unfeasible. At the same time, Kortunov noted, Putin cannot isolate Russia from the outside world, and the recent political upheavals in Georgia and Ukraine have shown Russians that there are alternatives to Putin's system of governance. Kortunov stated that a democratic breakthrough during Russia's 2008 elections is possible, but not likely, because the opposition is fragmented and the state is still rich in oil money. He believes that there are two more likely scenarios: in the first, Putin and his allies would name a successor, who would win the 2008 election; in the second, the government structure would be changed to give greater powers to the Prime Minister, and Putin would become Prime Minister.

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Kennan Institute

The Kennan Institute is the premier US center for advanced research on Russia and Eurasia and the oldest and largest regional program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The Kennan Institute is committed to improving American understanding of Russia, Ukraine, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the surrounding region though research and exchange.  Read more

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