The Chinese People's Liberation Army: Should the U.S. Be Worried?

All speakers agreed that while China's military modernization bears close scrutiny, the capabilities of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) cannot compare with those of U.S. forces. Additionally, China is focused on economic modernization, and while success in this area has meant an increase in the PLA budget, China's military is still under the firm control of the Chinese communist party, whose top priority in the international realm is peace and stability, not military adventurism.

Litai Xue of Stanford University emphasized communist party control of the military. Party control was present at the founding of the PLA in 1949, and continues to this day. The ultimate decision-making authority on national security in China is the standing committee of the party's political bureau, but in wartime national command authority would be turned over to the central military commission (also a party body). Bernard Cole of the National War College commented on the PLA navy, noting its main mission is aimed at a Taiwan contingency. Although there has been movement toward China's developing a blue-water navy, especially to protect China's sea lanes of communication, Cole felt this was a mission basically for the future. He noted most of China's naval assets at present are dedicated toward the acquisition of equipment which will benefit the Chinese navy in military action against Taiwan. Cole felt China's strategy is not to take on the U.S. navy in such an engagement, but rather to force Taiwan to the negotiating table before the United States could intervene militarily.

Dennis J. Blasko, U.S. Army (ret.), gave a detailed presentation of the Chinese army's strengths and weaknesses. The army has pared down from 3.2 million to 2.3 million, in an attempt to move from a quantitative to a qualitative fighting force, especially in the new high-tech, information era. The Chinese army has made significant progress over the last decade in military modernization, yet Chinese military planners themselves say that the modernization process will not be completed until 2020. Blasko felt the Chinese army's main weaknesses are the lack of quality personnel and inexperience in joint operations. Finally, Kristen Gunness of the CNA corporation talked about relations between the military and civil society in China, noting, for example, that as Chinese society becomes "grayer," this puts more pressure on the military budget to pay for a growing number of retirees. Also, China's "one-child" policy means that the pool for entry-level recruits is growing smaller. Another problem is that unqualified rural youth are able to buy their way into the PLA, while qualified urban youth are able to buy their way out.

Drafted by Mark Mohr, Asia Program Associate
Robert M. Hathaway, Director, Asia Program. Ph: (202) 691-4020