As news broke that the United States and Israel were carrying out a massive attack on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Moscow unleashed a barrage of words against the operation.  

The Russian Foreign Ministry quickly trotted out a Soviet-style denunciation of the attack, calling it "a pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state in violation of fundamental principles and norms of international law." 

Dmitri Medvedev, a former president of Russia, current deputy chairman of Vladimir Putin's security council, and the Kremlin's leading online troller-in-chief, said on X: "NATO’s nuts! First, the US kills Iran’s leader and starts a war in the Middle East. Next, NATO idiots led by Trump’s servile “sonny” Rutte mull invoking Article 5. How about nominating POTUS for the Nobel Peace Prize for starting a major war, eh? Orwell was right: war is peace!"

In a more serious statement, ​President Vladimir Putin​ described Khamenei’s assassination as "a murder committed in cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law.” Ayatollah Khamenei, he said, “will be remembered as an outstanding statesman who made a huge personal contribution to the development of friendly Russian-Iranian relations, bringing them to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership.” 

Moscow and Tehran did sign a strategic partnership agreement in 2025, expanding economic cooperation, and strengthening security and political coordination, but that treaty, unlike Russia’s treaties with Belarus and North Korea, does not require Russia to defend Iran if it is attacked.  

As a result, Moscow has done nothing militarily to help its “friend,” Iran.  

Putin’s inaction is a reminder of how he failed to respond to the downfall of two other friends and allies: Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, and Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. Kremlin critics have been quick to see that as proof of the Russian leader’s inability to help his allies, as well as of what they say is his diminishing international influence.  

“They have demonstrated their weakness now – they are worthless as allies,” Ukrainian president ​Volodymyr Zelensky​ scoffed. ​     ​ 

Still, in an interview ​Zelensky  conceded that the war against Iran may hurt Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia’s onslaught: “We may face difficulties in obtaining missiles and weapons to defend our skies,” he said. “Americans and their allies in the Middle East may need them for self-defense, for example, Patriot missile systems.” 

In the early days of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Iran supplied Moscow with Shahed drones, along with the technology to produce them. They were a game-changer for the Russian military. But Russia soon began adapting Iran’s technology and now produces its own version of the Shahed, which it calls the Geran. As a result, Moscow is less reliant on Tehran. 

The Russian president may find ways to exploit the war the US and Israel have unleashed on Iran. Oil and gas prices, at least for now, are spiking. That is good news for the Russian budget, and for Moscow’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine.  

The conflict raging in the Middle East is likely to deflect the Trump administration’s attention from Ukraine, and that could ease what little pressure there is right now on Putin to agree to a US-brokered peace agreement with Ukraine. President Trump has openly talked of regime change in Iran, which Russia, for years, has categorically rejected in the post-Soviet space. Russian state-controlled media have been criticizing Trump for violating his previous mantra of “no more forever wars.”  

But Putin’s priority is restoring relations with the US and he is not burning any bridges. While criticizing the attack on Iran, he has not, so far, publicly blamed Donald Trump. 

Putin is ​also ​hedging his bets with Israel. Russia’s relations with Israel were damaged after Hamas’​s​ October 7 attack on Israel when the Kremlin, in an attempt to maintain diplomatic leverage in the Middle East, invited Hamas representatives to Moscow. Putin  is​ now​ trying to preserve his pragmatic relations with Israel and with the Gulf Arab states. 

Russia’s military bloggers, who often criticize the Russian military for its performance in Ukraine, are closely following the war against Iran, noting with chagrin that the US military was able to swiftly decapitate the Iran’s supreme leader, a feat the Russian military was unable to accomplish with Volodymyr Zelensky in the first days of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That was more than four years ago, and Putin continues to pummel Ukraine. 

The US-Israeli military operation does appear to have caught Russia by surprise. The war’s future course is unpredictable, as are its implications for Putin. So far, he appears to be following his usual playbook: wait and watch; take no immediate action; exploit any aspect you can; and, in the meantime, hope the United States gets bogged down in the unfolding chaos of a Mideast war.  

And yet, the shocking ability of the US, along with Israel, to remove Iran’s leader in a lightning military operation ordered by an American president who is always full of surprises and yet with whom Putin is trying to curry favor may have some in Russia’s leadership worried: could it set a precedent, putting Russia’s own leadership in peril?