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Is the West Losing Its Battle for the Future of a Free World?

Victor Andrusiv

BY VICTOR ANDRUSIV

Two weeks before the start of the war in Ukraine, I published a blog piece titled "A Struggle for the Future of Russia." In it I said that the future of Russia and the West would be decided on Ukrainian battlefields, and that Ukraine had every chance of winning this war if provided with support from the West, and could also give the world a chance for a new, reasonable Russia.

Now I write from Kyiv, which is under constant air strikes. This is the fourth week of a war the scale of which Europe has not faced since World War II. As I predicted, the Ukrainian army turned out to be strong enough to curb the Russian invaders. During the past two weeks we stopped their failed blitzkrieg, halting the advance of Russian ground troops and inflicting on them colossal losses. According to our data, more than 12,000 soldiers, 300 tanks, 80, helicopters, and 60 jet planes on the invader’s side have been lost. All this forced Putin to change his strategy.

Putin’s new plan is not to occupy Ukraine but to destroy it. He is going to demolish our cities and kill innocent civilians until our humanism overcomes our objections to his conditions of peace. This is nothing new for him. He is convinced that humanism is the West’s weakness, and he has set out to prove it once again. His bombings have nothing to do with the destruction of military infrastructure. As captured pilots have attested, they were instructed to deliberately target civilian infrastructure, focusing on providers of household heat, water, and electricity. 

The same applies to humanitarian corridors. Every time a minimal agreement is reached about a green corridor for the safe passage of noncombatants from besieged cities, the Russian military begins shooting at those trying to leave, deepening the humanitarian catastrophe. The terrible attack on the maternity hospital in Mariupol is screaming proof of this new strategy of Putin. He will increase the number of civilian casualties, refugees, and destroyed cities. His logic is simple: if he cannot conquer Ukraine, then he will inflict so much damage that it will never be a threat to the Russian Federation.

This carnage can be stopped with relatively minor effort, by strengthening Ukraine with jet planes and air defense capabilities so that Putin’s air terror might be brought to an end. We can stop him, and now is the time to give Ukrainians this chance. Each wasted day is measured in hundreds of thousands of refugees and billions in destroyed infrastructure costs. Providing this much-needed weaponry would be much cheaper than providing help to rebuild our cities. In the end, sell us these weapons if you are too scared to give us them.

Today the West reminds me of Dutch soldiers in Srebrenica, who observed genocide with their own eyes but dared not intervene. Unfortunately, the tragedy of Srebrenica had such great consequences that later nobody could avoid intervening. I understand that the prospect of a World War III scares the West; however, Putin is provoked not by a strong response but by fear. The West is demonstrating weakness and fear, motivating Putin to continue. At the same time, had he faced a stronger response in 2014, this tragic war could have been avoided.

During the Caribbean crisis, Kennedy did not think about how not to provoke the Soviet Union. He forced Khrushchev to think about how not to provoke the United States. This should be the basis of the response strategy to Putin: he is the one who should be afraid, not feared. Ukrainians have shown that it is possible to destroy and stop the "glorious Russian Army" with limited numbers. Give us weapons and we will stop Putin's military plans, and the global sanctions will stop any of his political plans. Small steps today will save everyone from colossal losses in the future.

The battle raging in Ukraine is not only for our future. It is a battle for the future of the free world. The defeat of Ukraine will mean that the West is afraid and can be forced to retreat from its values. It will send a signal to all nations present and future that are on the path to freedom. It will signal to dictators everywhere that terror and intimidation can satisfy their goals. It will clear a path toward a world in which tyrants and despots attack and democracy retreats and defends.

Do not give such a world even the slightest chance of coming into being. Let us win the battle for the future of a free world today!

The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.

 

About the Author

Victor Andrusiv

Victor Andrusiv

Officer, Ukrainian Armed Forces; Former Director, Kyiv School of Public Administration
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Kennan Institute

The Kennan Institute is the premier US center for advanced research on Russia and Eurasia and the oldest and largest regional program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The Kennan Institute is committed to improving American understanding of Russia, Ukraine, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the surrounding region though research and exchange.  Read more