The Ninth Annual Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Memorial Lecture on U.S.-East Asia Relations

Strait to the Point: Current Challenges for Taiwan and US-Taiwan Relations

Taiwan’s always-difficult quest for status and security has reached a new inflection point, as have US-Taiwan relations. China launched military exercises following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan—by some assessments the “fourth cross-Strait crisis” since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China. In recent years, US-China relations have deteriorated—on some accounts, verging on a new Cold War. Congress has passed an unprecedented raft of “pro-Taiwan” legislation since 2016. President Biden and his administration have taken positions that arguably diverge significantly from traditional US formulations of “strategic ambiguity.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as US and PRC assessments of each other as security threats, have raised anew the specter of aggression by—and conflict among—great powers. Concerns are rising about an increasingly powerful and assertive China’s possible impatience with a lack of progress on reunification of Taiwan. Taiwan’s impending presidential transition is creating uncertainties not seen in nearly a generation.

Amid these developments, and in the context of international institutional and normative orders that are under stress and fracturing, will the multifaceted strategies that Taiwan has pursued successfully to secure international space and support still work? How will they need to adapt to the challenges of our moment? What are the implications for US policy and US-Taiwan relations?