Does the US Withdrawal from TPP Create Opportunity for Brazil?

With President Trump promising major changes to US trade policy, beginning with withdrawal from TPP negotiations, there will most certainly be winners and losers in the emerging environment. The Brazil Institute convened a panel of experts to explore the possibility that changes in US policy could create opportunities for Brazil. You can watch the entire discussion moderated by Brazil Institute Director, Paulo Sotero using the link at the bottom of this page. Immediately following are key takeaways from the panelists.

Key Quotes

Gary Hufbauer,Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics  

“At this point I would say that with President Trump’s policies on trade that the bark is worse than the bite because there hasn’t been much bite yet.”

“My expectation is the Trump administration will go forward more quickly with Obamacare repeal and replace and tax reform than on aggressive trade measures, but we shall see.”

Marcos Jank, Vice-President, Corporate Affairs and Business Development, BRF Asia-Pacific

“There are two ways to see President Trump’s trade policy. There are opportunities in the short term. If the US doesn’t want the TPP agreement then Brazil should implement it because the Brazilian agriculture sector will be very happy to be part of this.”

“We need to be realistic. When the US leaves the system that it created 70 years ago, then the system is at risk, the multilateral system in general is at risk right now.”

Diego Bonomo, Executive Manager of Foreign Trade, Brazilian National Confederation of Industry (CNI)

“Can Brazil benefit with President Trump’s trade policies? Yes and No.  When we think about potential benefits, these will come from the new policy between Brazil and third countries. Problems can come from the bilateral relationship between the U.S and Brazil.”

“If new trade policies put America on a collision course with China, then Brazil can benefit from this.”

João Augusto de Castro Neves, Director, Latin America, Eurasia Group

“The country that has the most to lose from President Trump is Mexico, from the administration’s willingness to renegotiate NAFTA.”

“The interesting thing about anti-establishment sentiment spreading across the world with Trump and Brexit and others.  Whereas in the developed world this has to do with the declining middle class, in Brazil this is about a rising middle class. In the developed world it’s about isolation and in the emerging markets it’s about wanting more openness.”