AirTalk, 6/25/2012


On July 1st, Mexico goes to the polls to choose its next president, six years after Felipe Calderón (PAN) won in a surprising victory.

A current poll by the Reforma newspaper shows Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate Enrique Peña Nieto leading with over 40 percent. Peña Nieto is followed by his leftist rival Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD), the former mayor of Mexico City, at 30 percent.

A current surge by López Obrador has some wondering if this election will see an unexpected outcome as happened six years ago. Andrew Selee, VP and director of the Mexico Institute at Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars says that is unlikely.

“You never want to predict with too much certainty but all the polls do show fairly significant margin of victory,” Selee said in a conversation with Air Talk’s Larry Mantle. “I mean all the independent polls, not done specifically for campaigns, show eight to twenty one points, so it does look like a comfortable margin. It would be a huge upset if either of the other candidates was to win.”

To read more or listen to the segment click here.