In a recent Indianapolis Star op-ed, Wilson Center President Lee Hamilton highlights the findings of the National Intelligence Council's report Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. "The youth bulge of the so-called ‘arc of instability'—from Africa, to the Middle East, the Balkans, and South and Central Asia—presents unique challenges. While the global population grows, the availability of resources will decline," he writes.

"The aforementioned trends could bring order, chaos, or something in between depending on decisions taken by political leaders. Bad outcomes are not inevitable, and America's leadership will count," he concludes.

In July 2008, the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program convened a group of environment, demography, and security experts to review an intermediate draft of the report. The discussion focused on Chapter Two, "The Demographics of Discord," and Chapter Three, "Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty?"