The International Foundation for Electoral Systems' (IFES) latest public opinion poll, taken in Ukraine in November 2009, shows high levels of pessimism among the vast majority of Ukrainians about the state of socio-political affairs in the country, as well as disenchantment with political institutions in the country prior to the January election. At a Kennan Institute lecture on 6 January 2010, Rakesh Sharma, Director, F. Clifton White Applied Research Center, IFES and Gavin Weise, Deputy Director for Europe and Asia, IFES, discussed their findings from these surveys and implications for the 2010 Ukrainian presidential elections.

2010 Presidential Elections
The precipitous decline in public sentiment on socio-political conditions in the country since the Orange Revolution as well as widespread dissatisfaction with political elites are the key factors driving the campaign for the presidency. In general, Ukrainians are influenced more by the personality of the candidates, rather than their platforms. No candidate is extremely liked, nor does any achieve even a 50 percent approval rating. However, Yanukovych seems to be leading among voters; confidence in his candidacy increased from 2008 to 2009 while it decreased in the same time period for Tymoshenko. Indeed, Yanukovych's support is more solid than Tymoshenko's, with a higher percentage of his supporters saying they will definitely vote for him than is the case with Tymoshenko supporters. While Arseny Yatsenuk emerged earlier this year as a possible viable third candidate, his support has largely waned according to most polls.

Weise outlined several interesting paradoxes he gleaned from the surveys. First, while a majority doubt that their participation in elections will induce positive changes in their country, they are still very likely to go to the polls and vote. Second, although Ukrainians also strongly doubt that their individual votes will be indicative of the election results (suggesting lack of faith in the system), and have very low trust in the institution responsible for administering the elections (the Central Election Commission). Nevertheless, they feel well-informed, comfortable with the secrecy of their vote, and satisfied with media coverage on the various candidates – processes the CEC itself has some role in overseeing. Third, while Viktor Yanukovych continues to be the front running candidate, the election still comes down to whether Yulia Tymoshenko can attract the voters of the lesser of the 18 candidates in the expected runoff. If she cannot, Yanukovych should win comfortably. Previous IFES surveys have shown she has more difficulty attracting these third-candidate voters than others. Nevertheless, Tymoshenko has generally surprised most pollsters in several previous elections.

Democracy and Elections
The IFES survey also asked Ukrainians about their impressions on democracy and elections in general. The data shows that since 2001, the belief that Ukrainians can impact decision-making through voting has steadily decreased. 58 percent still have little or no confidence in the CEC. On questions regarding Ukraine developing towards democracy, the issues of equality of justice, corruption, and economic benefits are becoming increasingly important considerations. Ukrainians also lack confidence in key government institutions in including the parliament, the Cabinet of Ministers, and the Ministry of Justice. As Sharma noted, Ukrainians do not believe that elected officials are accountable to their constituencies, and therefore 54 percent are in favor of direct parliamentary elections where they vote for candidates rather than the current system where they vote for political parties.

By Larissa Eltsefon
Blair Ruble, Director, Kennan Institute



For complete information on this IFES survey, click here.

To view a podcast of the event, click here.