Nigeria: A Post-Election Analysis

On May 18, 2007, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted an event entitled "Nigeria: A Post-Election Analysis," the last event in a conference series The Pending Nigerian Elections: A Step Toward Democratic Consolidation or Descent into Chaos? This forum of four public events was organized in partnership with CSIS, the Council on Foreign Relations, and Johns Hopkins School for Advance International Studies in response to growing concern among observers of the Nigeria's political situation as the April 2007 elections approached, marking the first ever civilian to civilian transfer of power in Nigeria's history. The first three events had taken place prior to the elections and the May 18 gathering provided the first post mortem after the elections.

The Keynote address was delivered by former Canadian Prime Minister Joe Clark. Clark was a member of the National Democratic Institute's (NDI) international election observer delegation to Nigeria's 2007 national elections. Clark noted that the conduct of the elections were dramatically flawed. Most striking were the false assertions by the Independent National Election Committee (INEC), the use of ballots lacking serial numbers, the disqualification of leading candidates, and the falsification of voter turnout. To improve upon Nigeria's democratization process, Clark provided concrete recommendations for (INEC) to regain its credibility. Foremost commissioners should be appointed democratically and function independently, and penalties should apply equally to all parties convicted of violating electoral laws.

The first panel was comprised of individuals from the international observer community who were in Nigeria during the elections. They reviewed the electoral process during the state elections on April 14 and during the National Elections on April 21. Ayo Obe, from NDI's Elections Program in Abuja stated she had witnessed the erosion of democratic institutions during both the state and national elections. Both elections lacked organization, demonstrated coercive practices and lacked transparency.
Dr. John Paden, an election observer and Professor of International Studies at George Mason University, asserted that low voter turnout in the national elections occurred primarily due to the violence and discouragement many Nigerians experienced after the state elections. INEC and the electoral process were further criticized by Robert Lawrence, Deputy Director of the Africa Program at the International Republican Institute (IRI). He believed the 2007 elections represented a step backward in Nigeria's democratic process; moreover, he said: "Nigeria is regressing without any regret."

The second panel was comprised of Nigerian civil society leaders and political party members who presented a Nigerian perception of the election and examined their impact on Nigeria's political future. Honorable Abike Dabiri, an Assembly Member from the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and a broadcast journalist, expressed shame at how the elections were conducted, and expressed her belief that the failures stemmed from a statement made by President Obasanjo, saying the elections were a "do or die affair." This statement, accompanying a lack of preparation and transparency by election authorities, led many Nigerians to suspect a predetermined victory by the ruling party People's Democratic Party (PDP). Dr. Kayode Fayemi, member of the Action Congress Party (AC), stated outrage and disappointment at the "state criminality that masqueraded for an election in Nigeria." Yet Fayemi was optimistic because the problem faced by plaintiffs in election related disputes was not a lack of evidence, but the ability of the government to adjudicate cases quickly and fairly. Innocent Chukwuma, Head of the Transition Monitoring Group, reinforced the argument that (INEC) was unprepared for the election and charged that it was deliberate. He found most troubling the implications of the elections for the future of the political opposition in Nigeria. He encouraged opposition parties, who now stood little chance of electoral success, to explore other means of engaging in the electoral process.

Dr. Reuben Abati, Editor at The Guardian, a prominent Nigerian newspaper, addressed the broader repercussions of this election, including the impending legitimacy crisis of the government. Despite positive trends in Nigeria, such as a vibrant civil society and media, and an independent judiciary, most Nigerians are disheartened by the outcome of the elections and increasingly skeptical about the democratic process in Nigeria's politics.

The final panel focused on Nigeria's electoral and political evolution and made recommendations for the new government. Mr. Audu Ogbe, an Action Congress (AC) party leader, noted that the real problem in Nigeria is that Obasanjo's government was determined to impose a candidate and the "cult of sycophancy" makes it nearly impossible to oppose the system from within. Mr. Abba Kyari, Special Advisor to General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) believed that participatory democracy is in danger because people are becoming apathetic, "It's a domino effect." Mr. Farouk Lawan, member of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and National Assembly stressed that electoral reform requires strengthening weak institutions and voter confidence in the democratic process. Pat Utomi of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) believed that constitutional reform is very important and that powers of the President need to be curtailed as "competing centers of prestige will help make government less attractive." Conversely discussant H.E. George Obiozor, Nigerian Ambassador to the United States encouraged the international community to recognize Nigeria's first civilian to civilian transition, although flawed; he also urged that Nigerians allow President elect, Umaru Yar' Adua a chance to prove himself.

Drafted by Amy Van Buren and edited by Doreen Chi and Steve McDonald, 08/22/07