The IMF View on the Uncertain Outlook of the Brazilian Economy

Three years into an unprecedented recession, the Brazilian economy seems poised to return to modest growth of 1 percent in 2017, down from an earlier official projection of 1.6 percent. Government efforts to boost confidence and restore fiscal discipline in recent months have calmed market fears, but serious challenges remain. 

The Temer administration now faces the politically fraught task of completing the approval of a constitutional cap on government expenditures and   implementing painful but critical structural reforms, including on  pensions, the tax code  and labor laws. Given the low level of popular support for his government and the high degree of political uncertainty from the ongoing corruption investigations, Temer's ability to push through a credible reform agenda is far from assured.

On Wednesday, November 30, the Brazil Institute will host a two-part discussion on the current state of the Brazilian economy and prospects for growth. Participants from the IMF's 2016 Article IV Consultation team with Brazil will present their report on recent economic and financial developments in the country followed by a discussion of the economic outlook within the context of current political realities at home and abroad.

Welcome Remarks:    
Paulo Sotero, Director Brazil Institute, Wilson Center

Session 1: Presentation of the 2016 Article IV Consultation Conclusions

Panelists:        

Alfredo Cuevas, Division Chief, IMF
Izabela Karpowicz, Senior Economist, IMF
Carlos Mulas-Granados, Senior Economist, IMF
Troy Matheson, Senior Economist, IMF

Session 2: Prospects for Reform and Economic Growth

Panelists:        

Monica de Bolle, Visting Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Teresa Ter-Minassian, Former Director, Fiscal Department, IMF
Meg Lundsager, Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center