The Kyrgyz Crisis: Overview and Forecast

This past spring saw a turbulent shift in Kyrgyzstan when a popular uprising ousted Kurmanbek Bakiyev from the presidency and opposition leaders established a provisional government. At a 16 July 2010 Kennan Institute lecture, Barbara Junisbai, Title VIII-Supported Research Scholar, Kennan Institute, put these recent developments into the larger context of Kyrgyzstan's politics, society, and place in Central Asia.

Upon assuming power, the main issue on the provisional government's agenda was to reform the constitution and create a presidential-parliamentary system. A referendum on the constitution was held amidst the aftermath of violent clashes that occurred between Uzbeks and Kyrgyz in the southern cities of Osh and Jalalabad. The clashes have been reported mostly as Kyrgyz attacks on the Uzbek minority, and have led to 400,000 internally displaced Uzbeks, 100,000 seeking refuge in neighboring Uzbekistan, and as many as 2,000 dead. Junisbai remarked that the government ignored the conflict at first, painting it as a small-scale fight that began in a casino between Kyrgyz and Uzbek youth. As the violence spread, and this narrative was no longer plausible, the government was nevertheless incapable of controlling or abating it.

"In many ways Kyrgyzstan resembles a failed state," said Junisbai, adding that other Central Asian countries are hoping the provisional government fails and becomes an example of the futility and ensuing chaos that follows pro-democratic uprisings. The provisional government must now work to rebuild infrastructure, and most importantly according to Junisbai, improve ethnic relations in the south.

Kyrgyzstan is representative of most post-Soviet autocracies. They share in common weak formal government institutions, informal political groups dominant in economics and politics, and personalist presidents who value their inner circles at the expense of competing groups. "Politics is too often about personal gain, not the public good," Junisbai said.

Unlike some other Central Asian countries, however, Kyrgyzstan is resource-poor, with a fierce competition for the scarce resources that exist. Poverty is wide-spread and preference for the president's inner circle is "extremely unbalanced." This has resulted in a lack of any elite or public support, as well as an increase in organized crime and political violence. The state's security services have been discredited by their involvement in graft and bribe-taking; public confidence in state institutions in general is almost zero.

While the U.S. can help Kyrgyzstan get through its recent political and social upheavals, the future of the U.S.-Kyrgyz relationship is uncertain, said Junisbai, since America's reputation there has suffered in recent years. Many Kyrgyz think the U.S. is only interested in their country because of the American airbase in Manas, and believe that the U.S. is even willing to support autocrats as long as Manas stays open. However, Junisbai expressed hope in a second chance for cooperation. Kyrgyzstan knows it needs the U.S., which gives the U.S. more leverage than it has in other Central Asian countries. Junisbai advised that the U.S. should maintain transparency in contracts relating to the airbase, and should help Kyrgyzstan strengthen their parliament through assistance programs like those in Ukraine.

By Larissa Eltsefon
Blair Ruble, Director, Kennan Institute