The State of Ukrainian Democracy

At a recent Kennan Institute talk, William Green Miller, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine and Senior Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center, argued that democracy in Ukraine today is "messy, but healthy." Before the Orange Revolution of 2004, Ukraine was nominally democratic, but in fact controlled by a single party system, Miller said. After independence in 1991, the party of power was led by Soviet-era elites who had learned to use economic power—rather than the military and police force used by the Soviet state—to control the government and society. The party of power was not responsive to popular concerns and was highly corrupt at all levels. Nevertheless, Miller noted, Ukraine's 1996 constitution provided a vision of a democratic state that guaranteed the human rights of all of its citizens.

During the 2004 presidential elections, Ukrainians came together to demand that the promises of the constitution be fulfilled, Miller contended. Opponents of the party of power rallied behind former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko. Yushchenko, Miller explained, had at one point been a member of the party of power, but was seen by Ukrainians as different from other leaders and untarnished by corruption. On the night of November 21, when it became clear that party of power candidate Viktor Yanukovych would likely be declared the winner of the presidential election, thousands of people took to the streets in Kyiv to protest election fraud and demand that the elections be declared invalid. Through peaceful demonstrations, the protesters of Kyiv, supported by a majority throughout the country, succeeded in bringing down the party of power system, Miller said.

The leaders of the Orange Revolution became leaders of the Ukrainian government, with Yushchenko as president and Yulia Tymoshenko as prime minister. However, as soon as the new government was faced with the challenge of ruling Ukraine, the Orange coalition began to disintegrate. According to Miller, the leaders of the Orange Revolution represented the wide spectrum of economic and political ideologies that exist in Ukrainian society. This ideological diversity made for a fragile coalition, and the splits have developed into intense personal animosities, he said. The recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine over gas prices has further complicated Ukrainian politics. Miller believes that it remains to be seen whether the crisis will lead voters to view Yushchenko as a success or a failure in standing up to what many Ukrainians saw as a Russian attack on Ukraine's independence.

Miller noted that he was at first very discouraged by the collapse of the Orange coalition and by the discord in Ukrainian politics. However, he concluded that in an ideologically divided society such as Ukraine, intense public and political debate is unavoidable and even healthy for democracy. The Orange Revolution, Miller believes, was successful because it empowered the people of Ukraine to choose their leaders, and because it broke down the party of power system. He noted that current polling indicates that the Rada that will be elected in March will look very similar to the current Rada—many deputies will be closely connected to oligarchs, and the combined parties of the Orange coalition will hold a slim majority. The difference, Miller said, is that the new Rada will be a powerful political force rather than a rubber stamp for the president. The real victory of the Orange Revolution, he concluded, was in creating a system of checks and balances.