Transformation and Integration: Russia, Europe and America after 9/11 and Iraq

At a recent Kennan Institute seminar, six members of a working group funded by Carnegie Corporation of New York discussed the results of their two-year study on the potential for Russia's integration with Europe and the United States and its transformation into a prosperous, democratic country. Alexander Motyl of Rutgers University and Blair Ruble of the Kennan Institute provided background information on the working group and its goals. Motyl explained that the group's main concern was how Russia could become a modern country, defining "modern" to mean democratic and economically prosperous. The group discussed several questions, including: Can Russia become a modern country in isolation from the West? Is Russia an authoritarian state? Can authoritarianism lead to modernity? What can the West do to help Russia? Ruble noted that group members sometimes disagreed on these issues, with the biggest divide being between "optimists" who saw Russia as progressing towards modernity, and "pessimists" who saw Russia as reverting toward its authoritarian past.

Lilia Shevtsova of Carnegie Moscow Center gave a brief description of current political trends in Russia and an overview of challenges that the country is facing. She argued that the experiment with liberal democracy is over—for now at least—and that Russia has become a "bureaucratic authoritarian" state. Putin currently has a strong hold on the presidency, but his power is limited by the strength of the bureaucracy and his popularity is threatened by the growing tide of populist nationalism that the Kremlin helped unleash but cannot control. Pilar Bonet of the Moscow bureau of El Pais agreed that Russia cannot be considered democratic. According to Bonet, the small number of Russians who remain committed to democracy in the Western, liberal sense are divided over whether to work for reform within the current system of governance or become dedicated opponents of this system.

Looking at economic conditions in Russia, Philip Hanson of the University of Birmingham had a more positive assessment. He argued that business indicators are good, but warned that the EU, which is Russia's major trading partner, is preventing Russia's ascension into international organizations such as the WTO by setting unreasonable conditions. Oleksandr Pavliuk of the OSCE in Vienna discussed Russia's foreign policy under Putin. He argued that internal consensus around the idea of restoring a strong state has led Russia toward authoritarianism and imperialism in foreign policy. Russia's efforts to exert influence over other post-Soviet states, according to Pavliuk, have undermined Putin's stated goal of integration with the West.

Motyl argued that it would in principle be possible to achieve a partnership between Russia, the United States, and Europe that would be mutually beneficial to all parties, but such a partnership would require all three to adjust their current positions. Russia would need to renounce its role as regional hegemon in the post-Soviet space, the U.S. would need to approach Russia as a true strategic partner, and the EU would have to overcome strong internal divisions and make a concerted effort to integrate Russia. In Motyl's view, none of these changes will come easily, making a three-way partnership unlikely in the near future. He argued that therefore Russia should focus on integration with Europe, because Russia and the EU have shared strategic interests as well as close geographic and economic ties.