Balance of the "Inter-Campaigns"
What are the pending assignments one week prior to the start of the electoral campaigns?
One week before the official start of the presidential campaigns, there are clearly many pending tasks after this particular period within the electoral process, called “inter-campaigns.”
- Candidate Futility. What should have been evaluation and preparation weeks for the real campaign turned into an exhausting intermission where attacks, dirty war, and disqualifications prevailed.
- The independents’ fiasco. What was intended to become a breath of fresh air vis-à-vis the discredited particracy is resulting in the survival of a sole candidate (party-less, yet not independent), in light of the fraudulent actions of candidates and in questions to the INE regarding the process of validation of signatures. In other words, the one who makes the law also makes the trap. With that said, to complete the requirements imposed by legislators on the number of citizen signatures (866,000), geographical dispersion (17 states), time limits, in addition to the technical problems associated with signature recollection (mobile application failures, intermittent connectivity) enormous human and material support were needed. Predictably, a potential candidate who did not have such support, Maria de Jesus Patricio "Marichuy", reached 94% of valid signatures. But of course, she lacked more than 600 thousand of the amount of signatures required by law.
- Presidential candidate polling. The latest polls provide a clear picture: in the fight for second place in voter intent, the PRI and PAN are paving the way for Morena.
From the National Action Party's (PAN) side, the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s (PRI) attack on Ricardo Anaya has cost him between two and four points. Additionally, Margarita Zavala’s independent registry might take away more points. The most unusual point is that Margarita and the calderonistas’ personal vendetta against Anaya are strengthening Lopez Obrador's run. In their minds, the fracturing of the party is more important than beating the person who accuses Felipe Calderon of being spurious and a fraud.
The PRI’s case is just as dramatic. In the strategy to derail Anaya’s campaign at any cost, the party is sinking its own candidate. The expected gain from this strategy is not occurring; on the contrary, AMLO is profiting from the fight between the “Prian.”
In Oraculus’ survey, the only constant is Lopez Obrador’s solid first place, with an advantage ranging from 6 to 18%.
4. Congressional preferences. According to Massive Caller, voter intent for the Senate favors Morena in 12 federal entities and holds the 2nd place in 16 others.
It is an embarrassing spectacle to witness parties who approved the structural reforms working in favor of the person who promises to overturn them. It will be accomplished if that person obtains a congressional majority.
The views expressed here are solely those of the author.
About the Author
The Mexico Institute seeks to improve understanding, communication, and cooperation between Mexico and the United States by promoting original research, encouraging public discussion, and proposing policy options for enhancing the bilateral relationship. A binational Advisory Board, chaired by Luis Téllez and Earl Anthony Wayne, oversees the work of the Mexico Institute. Read more