The most contentious topic of the Mexican presidential campaign three weeks from Election Day isn’t necessarily one of the candidates.
Since May, Mexico’s public opinion polls have produced wildly different results from one another, triggering widespread scrutiny, leading people here to question if polls are being used for propaganda purposes, and if they can actually change the outcome of the July 1st elections.
At the end of May for example, Reforma newspaper published a poll that put leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) just 4 points behind the once-dominant front-runner Enrique Peña Nieto.
Obrador’s supporters celebrated the findings, claiming them as a sign that the momentum is turning in their way. Some political analysts also interpreted Peña Nieto’s modest performance in the poll as a sign that the recent wave of student protests against the PRI candidate poisoned public opinion of the candidate...
In an e-mail, Moreno said that his company, which also owns the Reforma newspaper, had a policy of not allowing employees to conduct interviews with other media outlets.
So we contacted political analysts and polling experts in the U.S., who presumably have an opinion on Mexican pollsters that is not affected by any political or economic interests. They described Moreno as a “well respected,” researcher.
“The Reforma poll is a reputable poll,” said Christohper Wilson, a Mexico expert at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Affairs. “Within any poll there is a margin of error and my guess is that this poll’s margin fell in López Obrador’s favor.”