Is a Popular President Good for Democracy?

López Obrador won the presidency with 53 percent of the votes, an unprecedented figure in a democratic Mexico. Since then, he has slowly garnered more and more support. His current approval levels hover between 67 and 85 percent depending on the polling firm. Thus, by gaining the approval of people who voted for other candidates, his governing coalition is even larger than his electoral coalition. 

Perhaps the most important long-term consequence of López Obrador’s popularity is the progressive weakening of Mexico’s opposition parties. The runner up in Mexico’s presidential election was 30 percentage points behind AMLO, which meant that the contest was not competitive by any standard. López Obrador’s coattails also translated into a reduced congressional opposition. Nowadays, the picture is bleaker: if mid-term elections were held today, MORENA would get 52 percent of the vote, while the PRI and the PAN would be tied in second place with only 8 percent of support (Buendia & Laredo national poll, February 2019). Party identification figures show a similar pattern: MORENA 34%; PAN 8%; PRI 7% with 42% of respondents who consider themselves non-partisan. This is new territory for the PRI because, even when it lost the presidency for the first time in 2000, the number of Priistas did not fall below 20 percent. Likewise in 2006.

The high level of support for López Obrador makes it very difficult for the opposition to present an alternative narrative to the official one. Most people believe in López Obrador’s words while they do not trust a single PRI or PAN politician. Further, as his government rolls on, the new president is increasing his condemnation of corruption in past governments, putting both the PRI and the PAN on the defensive. 

Given the overwhelming public support for AMLO and MORENA, the latter will easily win the local elections to be held in June 2019, including two governorships. If the opposition parties do not gain some steam, the 2021 mid-term elections will be a MORENA landslide, both at the congressional and regional level, as almost half of the Mexican states will elect new governors. If this scenario comes true, the distribution of political power in Mexico will not be that different from the one we had in the 80s or early 90s. The Mexican democratic transition will have come full circle.

The views expressed here are those of the author.