Week of: 11/05/2023-11/11/2023

Zaldívar resigns from the Supreme Court 

Supreme Court Justice Arturo Zaldívar emphasized that his resignation, submitted on Tuesday to President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, aligns with the Constitution and is not driven by pursuit of a public position. 

In a letter sent to President López Obrador, Zaldívar stated that his contributions to the Court had become marginal and his cycle had ended, and swiftly announced his plan to join Claudia Sheinbaum's political team for “national transformation.” 

While experts debate the constitutionality of the resignation, anticipating the President's acceptance and nomination of three replacements, Zaldívar clarified that he does not seek to become Attorney General. Affirming his commitment to a political and social project with Sheinbaum, he ruled out pursuing the Attorney General position, as he has already been Chief Justice, which he sees as the highest position for a litigator. 

Responding to President AMLO's proposal for the popular election of Supreme Court justices, Zaldívar deemed it valid to debate the best system for appointing judges, highlighting the dynamism of society. He expressed disagreement with the popular election of judges and magistrates, citing global examples where non-popular appointments still secured qualified profiles. Despite concerns about over 1,500 elected judges, he refrained from offering further opinions due to ongoing dialogues within the Judicial Branch. 

Mexico is the US’ top trading partner 

Mexico and the United States achieved a historic trade volume of $599.8 billion in the first nine months of 2023, a 2.1% increase from 2022. Mexico became the leading US trade partner during this period, contributing 15.7% to total trade. 

Mexican exports to the US reached $356.3 billion, a 4.3% increase, making Mexico the primary supplier with a 15.5% share. Imports from the U.S. declined 0.9% to $243.5 billion, the first contraction since 2020. 

September's exports slightly dipped by 0.05% to $39.543 billion, marking the second decline in 2023. Purchases of US goods dropped by 1.2%, continuing a six-month contraction trend. September witnessed a notable 5.1% annual contraction in Mexican exports, the most significant decline in 37 months. 

Banco Base's analysis revealed a 1.7% increase in transportation equipment manufacturing in August, despite a strike in mid-September. The strike's impact on supply chains, including Mexican exports, will be observed in October's data. 

As the year ends, exchange rate stability and US economic expectations will determine Mexican export trends. Independent advisor Mario Correa observed weakness in Mexican exports in September, possibly due to reduced industrial activity and peso strength. A diversified and environmentally conscious supply chain is crucial for maximizing export potential.  

Changes proposed to 2024 presidential debates 

At the International Debates Forum 2024 organized by the National Electoral Institute (INE), PAN, PRI, PRD, PT, Movimiento Ciudadano (MC), and Morena representatives supported the three planned debates but stressed the need for agile formats, excluding moderator protagonism, and promoting creativity for increased citizen engagement across digital platforms. Berenice Luna Ayala from PAN emphasized the importance of simple and flexible debates, calling for experienced moderators to facilitate meaningful discussions. 

PRI representative Rolando Zapata criticized rehearsed speeches in past debates, advocating for spaces that strengthen ideas and eliminate hate speech. He proposed debates actively involving citizens, fostering innovation for engaging exercises and direct candidate dialogues. Zapata suggested real-time fact-checking using artificial intelligence. 

Forum leader Lulisca Bautista Arreola sought input on citizen participation, improvements, and success criteria. PRD representative Adriana Díaz Contreras called for post-debate expression regulation to prevent negative effects, emphasizing the importance of constructive and solution-oriented discussions. 

Morena's Jaime Castañeda emphasized debates as tools for citizen participation, discouraging polarization and misinformation. He stressed the importance of moderation with institutional support and format clarity for three debates. Movimiento Ciudadano's Braulio López Ochoa suggested INE conduct a lottery among civil society organizations for specialized questions on various topics. 

Moody’s makes an upward adjustment to its growth forecast for Mexico’s GDP 

Moody's, the credit rating agency, announced an upward revision of its GDP growth forecast for Mexico in 2023 and 2024, attributing it to strong productive activity. The updated projection now indicates a 3.5% expansion in the Mexican economy for 2023, surpassing the previous estimate of 3.3%. For the following year, Moody's anticipates a growth of 2.3%, up from the earlier projection of 1.9%. The agency justified these revisions by citing “repeated positive surprises.” Additionally, Moody's foresees real GDP growth averaging between 2.0% and 2.5% in 2025, driven by the consolidation of nearshoring. 

In the third quarter, the Mexican economy exceeded expectations with a 0.9% expansion, resulting in a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, marking ten consecutive quarters of growth. Meanwhile, the government aims for a growth rate of at least 3.5% in both 2023 and 2024.