Following the third anniversary earlier this month of the beginning of the “Arab “Spring,” it is easy to be depressed. More like an earthquake, the tectonic plates have shifted and there may be no way to “restore” stability to many governments in the region.
In hindsight, the “revolutionaries” in Tahrir Square and elsewhere were better at toppling governments than building new ones. Only in Tunisia – where Islamist and founder of the Ennahda party Rachid Ghannouchi has been prepared to cede power to build a stable pluralist government – do we see a glimmer of sunshine. Ghannouchi may turn out to be the new Mandela – a man who uses decades in prison as a ploughshare not a sword.
But many countries are becoming failing states: think Libya, which has become the arms bazaar for the MENA region. What must U.S. policy be? As former U.S. Ambassador to Brazil and now Counselor to Secretary John Kerry, Tom Shannon, says, we need “long diplomacy” to follow the long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.