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After Mullah Omar’s Death, the Taliban Could Fracture Further

Michael Kugelman

"We may be seeing in Afghanistan the calm before the storm. If tensions spill over, splinter groups could form and some Taliban members could defect to Islamic State. Should such tumult feed on itself enough, it might even tear the Taliban apart," writes Michael Kugelman.

After initially denying reports of the death of its founder, Mullah Mohammad Omar, the Taliban has shifted gears to give the appearance of a smooth leadership transition. It has confirmed that its longtime No. 2, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, has succeeded Mullah Omar and that Sirajuddin Haqqani, leader of the Haqqani network, an allied terror group, has been named a top deputy.

Reports Friday, including on social media, suggest that several rivals—including one of Mullah Omar’s sons and Abdul Qayum Zakir, a senior Taliban commander—met with Mullah Mansour and endorsed his leadership. Mr. Zakir even reportedly issued a statement, posted on a Taliban-run Web site, saying that reports of his differences with Mullah Mansour are baseless.

But don’t count on this becoming a sort of kumbayah moment for the Taliban.

The Taliban has long been a fractured organization. And factionalism and infighting have grown as it has taken battle-field hits and its leader’s absence became more extreme. The cleavages widened, too, during recent peace talks with the Afghan government. Hard-line elements strongly opposing the negotiations, which have been postponed.

Confirmation of Mullah Omar’s death–which happened, as rumored, some time ago–and the leadership transition it has sparked will widen these fractures. Even if several rivals have endorsed Mullah Mansour’s new role, that doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t change their minds; jealousies and mistrust run deep. Additionally, some in the Taliban’s political office in Doha, Qatar, are reportedly not pleased with his promotion, and other senior Taliban leaders reportedly walked out of the meeting that led to his promotion.

Even more significant, a senior member of the Quetta Shura—the Pakistan-based top leadership of the Afghan Taliban—has reportedly suggested that Mullah Mansour is the choice of Pakistan’s intelligence agency (known as the ISI) and that “we do not accept this decision.” This reaction highlights not just the Quetta Shura’s internal opposition to Mullah Mansour but also the discomfort some Taliban leaders feel about the group’s closeness to Pakistan.

Tensions regarding the relationship with Pakistan, long a sore point for many in the Taliban, could boil over. The new Taliban leaders both have close ties to the Pakistani security establishment, which strengthens the argument that Pakistan is among the biggest beneficiaries of Mullah Omar’s death. Mullah Mansour has been described as a “favored son” of the ISI, while Sirujani Haqqani fronts a terror organization that is based in Pakistan and also has a strong rapport with the ISI.

In 2013, another Haqqani network leader, Nasiruddin Haqqani, was gunned down on the outskirts of Islamabad, not far from the Pakistani military’s headquarters in Rawalpindi. News also emerged Friday that Jamiluddin Haqqani, the group’s founder, has been dead for a year—a revelation likely to strengthen Sirujani Haqqani and perhaps embolden him to challenge Mullah Mansour’s authority. Sirujani Haqqani might decide to oppose Mullah Mansour’s position supporting the peace talks.

We may be seeing in Afghanistan the calm before the storm. If tensions spill over, splinter groups could form and some Taliban members could defect to Islamic State. Should such tumult feed on itself enough, it might even tear the Taliban apart.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author.

This article was originally published in The Wall Street Journal.

About the Author

Michael Kugelman

Michael Kugelman

Director, South Asia Institute
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Asia Program

The Asia Program promotes policy debate and intellectual discussions on U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific as well as political, economic, security, and social issues relating to the world’s most populous and economically dynamic region.   Read more