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"The dissipation of a large youth bulge tends to yield relative political calm," says Richard Cincotta. On the other hand, democratic gains under youth-bulge conditions "face unfavorable odds." Using age-structure data, he assesses the fragility of existing liberal democracies and forecasts when new ones will emerge.

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Richard Cincotta

Richard Cincotta

Global Fellow;
Demographer in Residence, The Stimson Center
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Environmental Change and Security Program

The Environmental Change and Security Program (ECSP) explores the connections between environmental change, health, and population dynamics and their links to conflict, human insecurity, and foreign policy.  Read more

Environmental Change and Security Program

The Environmental Change and Security Program (ECSP) explores the connections between environmental change, health, and population dynamics and their links to conflict, human insecurity, and foreign policy.  Read more