Half a Chance: Youth Bulges and Transitions to Liberal Democracy

Richard Cincotta

"The dissipation of a large youth bulge tends to yield relative political calm," says Richard Cincotta. On the other hand, democratic gains under youth-bulge conditions "face unfavorable odds." Using age-structure data, he assesses the fragility of existing liberal democracies and forecasts when new ones will emerge.


Cincotta: Half a Chance (PDF)1.86 MB

Experts & Staff