1. Presidential Election
A faltering economy, growing poverty, and the devastating toll of over 600,000 COVID-19 deaths have exacerbated political polarization in Brazil. This, amid a looming presidential election likely to be dominated by archetypes of the country’s political left and right wing. Despite calls from centrists for less controversial alternatives, the presidential race will likely be decided between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva. Although neither Bolsonaro nor Lula has achieved majority voter support, no centrist candidate has yet been able to approximate a competitive level of support. Given the state of the race, the outcome of the 2022 presidential election will likely have profound repercussions for Brazilian foreign policy, environmental policy, and macro-economic policy, even if the eventual winner faces a divided Congress and high levels of rejection from a significant portion of the Brazilian electorate.